Is Pakistan at war with the Afghan Taliban?

For the past two years, Islamabad has persistently demanded that the Afghan Taliban rein in their Pakistani counterpart, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and use their influence to discourage them from attacking Pakistani troops and civilians.

The Afghan Taliban's response to this demand has been lukewarm, which, in turn, has emboldened the TTP.

The TTP, which is outlawed by Pakistan, continues to launch attacks on Pakistani soil, particularly in areas close to the Afghan border in the northwest.

On Saturday, a suicide bomber rammed an explosives-laden truck into a military checkpoint in North Waziristan district, killing seven soldiers. The attack was claimed by the Jaish-e-Fursan-e-Muhammad group, although security officials in Pakistan believe that the organization largely consists of TTP members.

In retaliation, Pakistan launched airstrikes inside Afghanistan, which has angered the Islamist rulers in Kabul.

Pakistan said it targeted a splinter group of the Pakistani Taliban and described the strikes as "intelligence-based anti-terrorist operations in the border regions inside Afghanistan."

The Taliban government claims Islamabad targeted civilian homes, killing at least eight people, including three children.

While relations between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan have soured in the past few years, the recent escalation over the TTP has the potential to spiral out of control, experts warn.

Pakistan 'runs out of patience'

"Pakistan's main concern is the security threat that we face from terror groups, especially the TTP and its affiliates, which have hideouts and safe heavens inside Afghanistan," Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, a Pakistani foreign ministry spokesperson, told DW.

"We are troubled by the freedom with which these entities operate freely from Afghanistan and engage in terrorist acts inside Pakistani territory," she said, adding that Pakistan has repeatedly urged the Taliban government "to take effective action against these terror groups … and prevent the use of Afghan soil for terrorism against Pakistan."

The Taliban leadership in Afghanistan pushes back on Pakistan's demands for a forceful action against the TTP. They argue that Islamabad misunderstands the complexities of Afghanistan's militant landscape, and the use of force by them could destabilize not just Afghanistan and Pakistan, but the entire region.

But Pakistani authorities, especially the military leaders, are appearing to be increasingly uneasy with the security situation along the Afghan border.

"The airstrikes by Pakistan reflect deep and growing frustration in Islamabad with Kabul's failure to act against the TTP that has continued to carry out attacks from Afghan soil. Many rounds of talks over the past two years with Taliban authorities have produced no response on this issue," Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani diplomat and foreign affairs analyst, told DW.

"Taliban leaders [in Afghanistan] have kept asking Pakistan for time to take action against the TTP but Islamabad sees that as an excuse and it has run out of patience," she added.

What does the TTP want?

One of the TTP's primary demands has been for Pakistan's government and military to reduce their presence in the country's northwest.

The TTP frequently carries out attacks in the region, where government control remains patchy.

The TTP comprises several hardline Sunni insurgent and sectarian groups who have waged a murderous campaign against the Pakistani state since 2007. Although the TTP are not directly linked with the Afghan Taliban in Kabul, they pledge allegiance to the group.

Pakistan banned the TTP in 2008, and the group has been responsible for many attacks across Pakistan. The deadliest to date was a 2014 attack on a school in Peshawar that killed at least 150 people, mostly schoolchildren. The TTP has also advocated imposing Sharia law in Pakistan, and to spread Taliban power across the entire region, turning Pakistan into an Islamist "emirate" like that in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. 

The TTP have been declared a terrorist organization by the United Nations and the United States. Their attacks have killed thousands of civilians and security forces in Pakistan.

An all-out war on the TTP?

Pakistan has waged several military operations against the TTP over the years, but this time around it seems it is ready to go all the way in targeting the militant group.

This would, of course, entail launching attacks inside Afghanistan on TTP hideouts, which would further anger the Afghan Taliban, who would possibly see it as an act of war.

"We have a long experience of fighting for independence against the superpowers. Afghanistan does not allow anyone to invade its territory," Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the Taliban government in Kabul, told DW.

"Pakistan should not blame Afghanistan for its failure to control problems on its territory. Such events [Pakistani airstrikes] can have very bad consequences," he added.

Omar Samad, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a former ambassador of Afghanistan to France and Canada, is of the view that Pakistan cannot ignore the TTP threat anymore.

"The roots of the problem, the history and evolution over the years, have taken on new dimensions and involve more players and agendas. As a result, it requires new thinking and a more effective approach to limit the impact short of an all-out conflict that could prove to be counterproductive for all stakeholders," he asserted.

Domestic issues

Experts believe that internal political issues in Afghanistan and Pakistan could also trigger a war-like situation, if not a full-scale conflict.

The country's powerful military is facing a lot of criticism over alleged election meddling, and its treatment of incarcerated ex-PM Imran Khan and his party. While the TTP problem is real, a military confrontation along the Afghan border could help the generals gain support from the public.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban appear to be divided on the TTP issue.

Muhammad Israr Madani, head of the Islamabad-based think-tank International Research Council for Religious Affairs, told DW that while the Afghan Taliban leadership "grasps the sensitivity of the TTP issue, the mid- and lower-level cadre do not" due to their shared jihadist ideology.

One of the reasons that the Taliban government in Afghanistan is reluctant to use force against the TTP is that it could fracture its own ranks and potentially drive Pakistani militants towards groups like the so-called Islamic State.

"The common Afghan views Pakistan as the primary instigator and a supporter of violence within Afghanistan," said Tameem Bahiss, a Kabul-based security analyst.

"After enduring four decades of conflict, with Afghanistan finally achieving a semblance of peace, they perceive Pakistan's airstrikes as an attempt to portray Afghanistan as a haven for militants and to drag the nation back into another cycle of bloodshed," he told DW.

The Taliban leadership could use this sentiment for its own legitimacy.

Additional reporting by Haroon Janjua in Islamabad, and Zia Ur Rehman in Karachi.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn