Pakistan: Will the appointment of new army chief end chaos?

Lieutenant General Syed Asim Munir is Pakistan's incoming army chief after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif appointed him to the post on Thursday.

Munir, a former spymaster, takes the reins of the army at a tumultuous time in Pakistan. The country is facing protracted economic and political turmoil.

Imran Khan, opposition leader and former premier, is marching on the capital demanding fresh elections. He has been openly critical of the army's role in politics since he was voted out of parliament in April.

The army chief is considered the most powerful person in Pakistan due to the Muslim-majority country's geopolitical position in Asia and security dynamics.

The nuclear-armed nation borders Afghanistan, India, Iran and China — all of great importance as regional and global powers.

The military, which also has a big economic stake in Pakistan, plays a vital role in national affairs. And who controls this highly important institution is a matter of great significance and consequence.

Military under pressure

Genral Munir will next week officially replace General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who led the military for six years. Bajwa's final years as the army chief were turbulent because of former PM Khan's relentless attacks on the army, which he accused of orchestrating his ouster.

The COVID pandemic and a global economic recession have had a negative impact on Pakistan's economy, which has also created political unrest in the country. Recent catastrophic floods have only made the situation worse.

Capitalizing on these issues, Khan has been mobilizing the masses since April. He is demanding snap elections, arguing that only a new elected government can deal with the challenges.

But Khan has damaged his ties with the military to a great extent. Reportedly, the former premier wanted a different military general to head the institution, not Munir.

The military leadership has vowed to remain neutral, but experts say it also cannot turn a blind eye to the "existential" issues Pakistan is grappling with today.

Key challenges for the new army chief

"The appointment [of the army chief] won't end the turmoil but it is a step in the right direction," Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, told DW.

"It has removed a key source of uncertainty and it brings to the top spot a new chief that doesn't have the baggage and unpopularity that [General] Bajwa had taken on during his last few months in power," he added.

Experts asses that the biggest challenge Munir faces now is to restore the public trust in the military and deal with Khan's confrontational politics.

"The new chief faces two simultaneous immediate challenges: Bringing back trust to the army, which has suffered major hits to its popularity, and figuring out how to deal with tensions between Imran Khan and the government," Kugelman said.

"General Munir may want to be less political than his predecessor, but that will be difficult, not just because of the army's deep legacy of political interference, but also because of the expectation within the political class that the new chief will try to lower the political temperature," he added.

Asfandyar Mir, an expert at the United Institute of Peace in Washington, agrees that Munir is ariving to his post "at a very difficult time" in Pakistani politics.

"Imran Khan will look to exert pressure on him to secure an early election. However, Munir will not be subject to the kinds of political attacks that the outgoing chief Bajwa has faced, at least not immediately," according to Mir.

"We might also see political realignments by politicians who take their cue from where the army chief stands, given that Munir comes in with a reputation of having a dispute with Khan. That might take the sting out of Khan's campaign and enable Munir to alleviate the political crisis in the country," Mir underlined.

Ties with the West

Islamabad's ties with the West, particularly with Washington, took a major hit after Khan lost power in a no-confidence vote in April. The populist politician immediately accused the US of conspiring with then opposition parties to remove him from office, an allegation Washington has denied several times.

Pakistan's economy, as well as its security requirements, depend heavily on Western backing. The Pakistani military has maintained decades-long ties with the US, going back to the Cold War, the 1980s Afghan War, and the more recent war on terror.

Khan's unfounded allegations against the US, and his decision to visit Moscow during Russia's unilateral attack on Ukraine, have created mistrust between the Washington and Islamabad.

Security analysts say repairing US-Pakistan relations will take time.

"I don't anticipate any major foreign policy changes, and especially toward Washington. There may be divisions within the military on key issues domestically, such as how to handle the Khan challenge, but there's a strong consensus on the need to maintain workable relations with countries in the West," said Kugelman.

"These are key Pakistani trade partners, after all. I expect continuity between Bajwa and Munir on prioritizing smooth ties with the US and other Western nations," the expert added. 

According to analyst Mir, there are other major challenges for the new army chief as well.

"He confronts an economy in meltdown mode. There is also the intensifying US-China competition, which will take an increasing toll on Pakistan," Mir told DW.

"The deteriorating security situation along Pakistan's western border due to the Taliban's support for anti-Pakistan militancy will also be major challenges for him over the medium term," he added.

Edited by: Shamil Shams