Great Game
July 11, 2011
Since independence in 1947 Pakistan has looked for stability on its western border and has drawn on common factors such as the ethnic makeup of its neighbor. Many Pakistanis believe that because of these ethnic similarities Pakistan and Afghanistan have much in common.
After all, both countries have large Pashtun, Baluch, and Hazara communities. On both sides of the border, semi-autonomous tribes resist the authority of their respective governments. Therefore, the movement of the people across the border is almost impossible to regulate.
The Pakistani Afghanistan expert and professor at the University of Lahore Rasul Bakhsh Rais is of the opinion that the two countries have a unique relationship: "Nowhere in the world do 40,000 to 60,000 people cross a border between two countries every day." The two countries have more than a thousand years of shared history, culture, and religion which developed long before the region's colonial masters arbitrarily drew up the border between the two countries in the 19th century. Rais argues that a dignified, peaceful and stable Afghanistan has always been in the interests of Pakistan.
A friendly or a hostile neighbor?
However today, at official level, both in Kabul and Islamabad, there is deep concern about the future of Afghanistan after the withdrawal of international forces. This is a key question in Islamabad. A return to Taliban rule after international forces pull out would force Pakistan to negotiate terms for good neighborly relations.
Many Pakistanis shudder at this prospect because it would in turn boost Islamist extremism in Pakistan. But with the Soviet threat long gone, Islamabad cannot afford to have an Afghanistan as a neighbor that offers countries such as India, which Pakistan views as hostile, a base that could be used against Pakistan.
Strategic depth as a defense policy priority
A friendly Afghanistan would also mean that Pakistan, in times of hostilities with India, could withdraw its forces into Afghanistan. While modern warfare has rendered this idea largely obsolete, many analysts feel nonetheless that Pakistan's primary interest in Afghanistan has been dictated by this factor since partition from India in 1947.
It is understandable that in the event of another war with India, Pakistan's lack of territorial width on an east-west axis could threaten its very existence. Dr Rais argues, Indian aid to Afghanistan has put an end to this option because "India has been providing assistance to the reconstruction of Afghanistan. In case of conflict between Pakistan and India, Afghanistan will remain a neutral state."
Therefore, considerable distrust remains with regard to India's aid program and its related ambitions in Afghanistan. Many Pakistanis believe that these represent an acute security threat to Pakistan.
Dr Rais believes that there has been some improvement: "The only change in Pakistan's policy towards Afghanistan is that Islamabad has now accepted its responsibility to be a partner in shaping a negotiated settlement with the Taliban." That is a diplomatic way of putting it.
Secret services' link to terrorism
But there is another way. Just last year, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) - the Pakistani intelligence agency - allegedly kidnapped a top Afghani Taliban leader in Karachi, ostensibly because he being a moderate, was willing to talk to the Americans about a peace deal. It was the ISI's way of telling the US that there would be no deal on an exit strategy from Afghanistan without Pakistan having its say. The same applies to the death of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.
The US has now concluded that bin Laden had indirect links with the ISI and that some parts of the ISI knew that the al Qaeda boss was holed up in Abbottabad, where he was killed by US special forces in May. The Pakistani intelligence service clearly believed that bin Laden was a pawn in the Great Game of Afghanistan that they and no-one else would play at the right time and to Pakistan's advantage.
Economic interests
Being a land-locked country, Afghanistan's economy is dependent on the transit routes through Pakistan. According to Dr Rais, annual trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan has expanded during the last seven to eight years to about 1.7 billion dollars and border trade, which is not documented, is much higher. Even if political relations between Kabul and Islamabad remain tense, business goes on and the people to people contact continues," says Dr Rais.
Both countries are now working on the "Afghanistan Pakistan transit trade agreement," which has yet to be finalized. Improved cooperation at regional level of this kind would inevitably reshape the relationships between the states of the region for the better. This common interest could be the key to confidence building between Afghanistan, Pakistan and India and help to move them towards the creation of a framework for security cooperation in the region in the future and a reduction in tensions.
Author: Kishwar Mustafa
Editor: Grahame Lucas