Pakistan: Experts warn of inaccurate census counting

Pakistan's first digital national census has been marred by complaints of inaccurate counting, with some political parties claiming that large parts of Karachi and remote northeastern areas were grossly undercounted.

As of May 2, the total population of Pakistan was reported to be 240 million — a 12.55% increase from the last national census of 2017. An officer from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) told DW on condition of anonymity that the numbers were still provisional.

As of the end of April, the population of Karachi, Pakistan's largest city, was reported to be down about 1% from the last census at 15.85 million, the news outlet Nikkei Asia reported. But experts are certain that there must have been a population increase in the city due to births and migration from across the country. They warn that an inaccurate census could pose yet another crisis and put the already embattled government at risk of protests.

Pakistanis have called for a more transparent population census before the government releases the final results.

The field operations of the seventh National Housing and Population Census in Pakistan ended on May 15 after the deadline was revised six times.

What questions does the census ask?

The census includes questions such as country of birth, gender, age, marital status, job status, religion, name of family head, relationship to family head, language abilities, level of education or literacy, and existing physical disabilities.  Enumerators also collect information on accommodation, such as the number of bedrooms, bathrooms, and type of building structure.

The country's National Finance Commission distributes funds to provinces on the basis of population and other factors.

Shahid Mehmood, a research fellow at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in Islamabad, told DW that over 86% of resource allocation was carried out on the basis of population. If inaccurate calculations were made, then the allocation would be unfair.

Ikram ul Haq, a Lahore-based analyst, told DW that excluding people in a census could lead to their being missed out by development projects  — whereas an accurate population census would ensure "sound planning for growth."

Seats in parliament are also allocated on the basis of population.

Allegations that remote areas were excluded

Political parties and activists are claiming that a number of areas were left out of the census, particularly in remote regions in Pakistan which have been dealing with a resurgence of the Taliban. There is also a concern that many women in conservative areas of the country were not counted.

The Muttiha Qaumi Movement, a Karachi-based party, said that millions of people in the urban areas of the southeastern province of Sindh had not been covered properly and argued that the system of verification was weak.

Bushra Gohar, a former parliamentarian, told DW that "most remote areas were not reached, while former tribal areas were not visited by census teams." People who had been displaced due to terrorism were not counted either, she added.

Yasmin Lehri, an activist from Pakistan's western province of Balochistan, which has faced a nationalist insurgency in the past 17 years, said that many areas were ridden with security issues, posing a challenge for census data collection.

"Women in tribal society cannot talk to men who are not related to them. Since most of the staff of the census were men, there is a strong possibility that many women were not counted accurately either," she said.

She feared the final results of the census would not accurately reflect the population of the province: "Which means we will receive a lesser share of federal resources —  that will result in less development." She also pointed out that the government would also not be able to conduct effective development planning in the absence of an accurate census.

An official at the PBS refuted these claims. She told DW on condition of anonymity that all those living at a particular place for six months or intending to do so had been counted. "Tribal areas, Balcohistan's insurgency-hit regions and remote parts of the country — all were counted and coverage was close to 100%. Deadlines were extended to ensure 100% coverage."

She also defended the random verification process: "NADRA (National Database and Registration Authority) does not have a complete record of people. More than 10 million women don't have national identity cards. If we count people on the basis of cards, then many women will be left out."

Khalid Bhatti, a Lahore-based analyst, stressed that the needs of Pakistanis could only be accurately assessed on the basis of a correct population count.

Edited by: Sou-Jie van Brunnersum