Who benefits from US-Cuba rapprochement?

For 53 years Cuba and the United States have been political enemies. Although the economic blockade imposed on the island is far from over and Cuba continues to be listed by the Americans as a "State Sponsor of Terrorism," the Cuban people are full of hope in the face of the new rapprochement policy.

Yet it is important to read between the lines: President Raul Castro has said that in negotiations with Washington, "Cuban principles" had certainly not been ignored. The prerequisite for the new policy - exchanging US businessman Alan Gross, imprisoned in Cuba since 2009, for Cuban prisoners in the US and the return of those "fighters against imperialism" - was hailed by the Cuban press as a triumph for the government. So, for the time being it remains quite vague if and how Cuba will respond to President Obama's proposals - no matter whether they refer to migration, the health care system, transport, trade or the flow of information between the two nations.

Opposition worries

In recent months, high-ranking representatives of Cuban expatriates had already expressed concern that Obama came across as "too relaxed" toward the island. The US asked Cuba to be genuinely open for dialogue; the release of Alan Gross was just one of many demands. The greatest cause for concern for opposition groups both on the island and living in exile remains the lack of democracy in Cuba and it remains to be seen whether rapprochement with the US, and possibly with Europe, will fundamentally change anything in this regard.

Lifting the economic embargo could have two effects: Cuba's economy could flourish and it might eventually - after 50 years - rid itself of the shackles of the sanctions. It could, on the other hand, also simply help to strengthen a regime which for decades has suppressed any and all opposition.

Only the Castro regime to profit?

Dialogue between the two states has delighted those who for decades have called for a reconciliation between Havana and Washington. At the same time, though, it worries those who believe it will only serve to strengthen the Castro regime both morally and economically; that would only strengthen a new generation of Castro supporters with no regard for an opposition that has grown over the last two decades. This is something the Castro regime has been preparing for for the past five years.

Amir Valle, born in 1967, is a Cuban writer. Not allowed to re-enter his country, he has been living in Germany since 2006.