Turkish Presidential Poll

There's no doubt that Abdullah Gül -- backed by an absolute majority of parliamentarians and after three rounds of voting on Aug. 28 -- will become his country's 11th president and occupy the highest office. Turkish Premier Erdogan's governing religious-conservative Party for Justice and Development (AKP) has a clear majority in the national assembly with 341 of 550 seats. Since the nationalists have said that they'll attend the first two rounds of voting on Aug. 20 and Aug. 24, the two-thirds quorum mandated by the constitutional court will be present.

The AKP's victory in the July 22 parliamentary elections was too obvious: 46 percent of votes is a clear message. The army's indirect coup threats and the desperate attempts of secular elites failed to prevent Gül -- and with him the first First Lady with a headscarf in the presidential palace. Gül's candidacy has sound democratic legitimacy and the AKP will lift him into the highest office on Aug. 28 -- two days before the traditional "Day of Defense Forces."

Last week, Erdogan reached out to the secular opposition, during the election of the parliament's president, by nominating Köksal Toptan, a compromise candidate, who was elected with an overwhelming 450 votes. This sparked hope that Erdogan would forego Gül, the polarizing presidential candidate, or that the latter would simply take himself out of the race.

But Gül had no intention of doing so. Why should he? The army, the secular elite, the constitutional court and incumbent President Ahmet Necedet all tried to prevent Gül's presidency by employing tactics that were hardly tolerable from a democratic point of view. As a result, the electorate punished them severely.

Gül will therefore become Turkey's highest-ranking civilian representative until 2014. It's safe to bet that Erdogan will do everything to replace him as the first president elected by popular vote. On Oct. 21, Turks will decide in a referendum whether the next president will be chosen by the people rather than by parliament. If the July 22 election victory will be repeated, there's no doubt that this change will take place -- just as there's no doubt that in seven years' time, Erdogan will be elected president of a country that has gone through an adjustment to a presidential political system by then.

It's perfectly superfluous to restart the outdated debate about what the army will have to say about this development. The generals' reputation as guardians of secularism and democracy was damaged long before the indirect coup threat on April 27 in reaction to Gül's first candidacy. Since 1960, four interventions by the military have all thrown back the country while established secular parties, led by incompetent, power-hungry politicians have surpassed each other in terms of democratic amateurism.

It remains to be seen whether Erdogan and his AKP will be able to handle the success and refrain from shooting themselves in the foot by rejecting a needed democratic culture of compromise and thinking that they're infallible. In 1983, the religious-conservative Motherland Party won 45 percent of the vote after three years of military rule despite contrary "advice" for voters by the generals. Today, this party has been relegated to the sidelines outside parliament.

It's hard to gauge Turkish voters: Just one year before the Motherland Party's grandiose election victory, a constitution dictated by the military had been accepted in a referendum with 92 percent of votes.

Baha Güngör heads DW-RADIO's Turkish service (win)