The new world disorder

Dramatic crises are unsettling the world: in Ukraine, and more so in the Middle East, even if a new ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is providing Gazans with five days to catch their breath. Syria's civil war is progressing with murderous intensity, albeit largely unobserved internationally. Soon the death toll is liable to reach 200,000 in a country that's falling apart. And in the north of Iraq, maps are being redrawn by an inconceivably brutal militant campaign that's tearing up international borders, purportedly in the name of Allah. Their area of influence already stretches from Aleppo to the borders of the Kurdish-administered region of northern Iraq; they call it the "Islamic State." The "Islamic State" (IS) terror group wants to destroy the current world order. They recognize neither borders nor states nor governments - only their version of the Koran counts.

Necessary support for erstwhile enemies

This is throwing diplomacy on its head, for suddenly the old rules no longer apply. The US is supporting the Kurds, and therefore indirectly the Shiite-led governments in Baghdad and Tehran, in the fight against the Sunni "IS" terrorists. The Americans are only reluctantly providing such aid; Washington would really prefer a change in power and policy in Baghdad, while relations with Iran remain tense and troubled. In Syria, the US is no longer sure whether to continue to support the ousting of tyrannical President Bashar al-Assad. Doing so could pave the way for the Islamist Nusra Front, who they are fighting in northern Iraq. It's a diplomatic dis-order, and there are no easy answers.

President Barack Obama, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate, quickly decided on a withdrawal from Iraq. He does not believe in the efficacy of military interventions - and yet now is forced to step in. The role of the US in the Middle East is being eroded. The Americans were once seen as irreplaceable, based on their close strategic ties to Israel and the conservative Arab authoritarian governments and monarchies like Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. But Obama is perceived as weak, indecisive, fickle and inassertive. Even Israel no longer listens to him, as evidenced by the failed attempts at shuttle diplomacy from Secretary of State John Kerry over the past 12 months. Israel is, and remains, a US ally - but it's acting more independently than ever before.

Europe must solve the crisis in Ukraine

In Europe's current crisis in Ukraine, it's Russian President Vladimir Putin who is emerging as the master of tactical opaqueness. After Crimea, does he want to seize eastern Ukraine? Does he just want to destabilize the region? Or is the destabilization a precursor for annexation? Does the challenge merely lie with the unpopular new government in Kyiv? Or is an overt claim to power concealed within the conflict from a new Russian imperialism, seeking to fill the political vacuum opened up by a US administration that's increasingly focused on itself, and by a hesitant, indecisive European Union? The western sanctions against Russia are starting to make an impact, but the diplomatic climate is freezing up - and telephone calls alone, even from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, will not be enough to untie the Ukrainian knots. Now that Russia has been frozen out of the G8, the main responsibility to seek a path into the Kremlin lies with the EU.

Meanwhile, Germany - which has been debating a more active foreign policy since the start of the year, with varying levels of enthusiasm - is being forced into a new role: It is now a leading power. Words from Berlin do carry weight. But Berlin must start running ahead of the pack. It can't drive the EU forward from the back seat, in the hope that it will never have to take any responsibility. Germany should show its colors, certainly in the Ukraine crisis but even more so in the north of Iraq. When the "Islamic State" is advancing with almost unprecedented brutality, when people are being slaughtered and driven from their homes, prosperous and peaceful Berlin cannot simply hope that a few million euros and some aid deliveries will calm the German conscience.

Taking responsibility, despite uncertainty

And yet, the military interventions of the past two decades have rarely proven a success. That's as true for Afghanistan as it is for Libya, where the toppling of Moammar Gadhafi's one-man dictatorship has simply created a "failed state." The world has become more unclear. The new world order is more of a new disorder, in which alliances are forever changing. After all, who could have imagined just a few months ago that the world might rush to the aid of the Kurds? And yet the international community has, even amid the prospect of victorious Kurdish peshmerga forces developing a new self-confidence and perhaps even demanding a Kurdish state across several current international borders! What's required, even demanded, now is the development of a new, impartial foreign policy for the EU and especially for Germany - forged to fit with an American superpower on the retreat, the neo-imperialist aspirations of Moscow, and a Chinese government still largely operating in the geopolitical shadows. And all that in a period devoid of diplomatic security.