East-West confrontation

Russia will probably be the only major country to recognize the planned elections in the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk on November 2, and Moscow will do more than just award the new political entity legitimacy: Russia will also take over sending provisions to the areas that wish to separate from Kyiv, and help the people who have been shaken by war and violence through the winter.

From a humanitarian point of view, this is of course the right thing to do, although it should not be forgotten that Russian politics are the reason the conflict led to war in the first place.

A new "frozen conflict"

With these elections in the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, the separatists want to save their hard-won power. They want to legitimately detach themselves from Kyiv and strengthen their bargaining position not only against the Ukrainian government, but also against the EU and the USA.

The result - steered by Moscow - will be yet another "frozen conflict," one of many of the post-Soviet era, such as in the separatist states of Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh, which have been in this state for about a quarter of a century.

In Russian politics, this kind of frozen conflict is familiar terrain, and in the end a welcome one - these alternative structures allow for ceaseless negotiations that end up protecting Russian interests. Moreover, these unresolved territorial disputes destabilize the countries that end up getting divided. By the method of carrot and stick, Moscow can influence local social moods and domestic policy. Moldovans and Georgians are very familiar with this strategy.

Kyiv's impotence

For the moment, there is nothing the Ukrainian leadership can do against Russia's aggressive politics: Kyiv gave up Crimea without a fight last spring. The Ukrainian attempt to stop the secession of Luhansk and Donetsk with weapons resulted in serious military defeats over the summer.

According to the ceasefire signed in Minsk, President Petro Poroshenko must accept the status quo in eastern Ukraine. His hand was forced not only due to military weaknesses, but in a much larger part because of the great political, economic and financial challenges Ukraine currently faces.

It is only through international (mostly European) financial help that Ukraine has been able to raise the sum of billions necessary in the preliminary settlement of the gas dispute with Russia.

Crimea and eastern Ukraine are just two of the many problems confronting the new Ukrainian leadership.

Defense instead of partnership

Like Ukraine, the EU nations and the US will not recognize elections in the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. But those living in these regions will have to accept it as fact. However, contrary to the possible expectations of the Kremlin, the West will not go back to business as usual - as it did after the Georgia war of 2008.

The Ukraine crisis and Russian political maneuvering this year have ushered in a new era in European security policy. Instead of partnership with Russia, defense is once again center stage.

This has resulted in a targeted upgrading of defense capabilities in the European NATO states. Russian military aircraft, flying over the North and Baltic Sea only reinforce the impression that this upgrade is necessary. A new arms race could be imminent.

Distrust overshadows any existing trust. Instead of expanding cooperation between Europe and Russia, the future will only see more sanctions and very limited collaboration. Whether it be in trade, in science, in space or on foreign policy issues - it is expected that partnership will be reduced in every field. Hardliners on both sides will only support this trend.

Ultimately, however, the goal must be to stop a new Cold War. The danger is that Russia's division policy in Ukraine will conjure up a new East-West confrontation - as it did in Germany at the beginning of the (first) Cold War. Every day, it becomes harder and harder to stop this from happening.