The end of Nord Stream 2 — for now?

Suddenly, there it was! While the EU was still debating which sanctions to impose on Russia and in what order, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz served up Germany's contribution: the approval process for the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline would be halted, he said. Without certification, the pipeline could not begin operating.

This entailed nothing more than a minor bureaucratic tweak. The German ministry of economic affairs need only retract an analysis in which it rated the pipeline as being important for Germany energy supply security. Without this rating, the Bonn-based Federal Network Agency, Germany's regulatory agency for electricity and gas, cannot certify the pipeline for operation.

The ministry "will reassess the security of our supply needs in light of what has taken place" in the past few days, the chancellor added. This one sentence speaks volumes. On the one hand, the chancellor admitted that he was mistaken in December when he said that the pipeline was a "private sector project" and that the relevant authority in Germany was making its decision in a "non-political way."

'There will no longer be a Nord Stream 2'

It also allows for a loophole. The words can be interpreted to mean that Germany's supply security can be reassessed at any moment. If Russia complies, there could be a change. What would be the argument, after all, for not approving Nord Stream 2, considering that the pipeline is already built and needs only to be put into operation?

The US might not agree. "If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2," US President Joe Biden said earlier this month when Scholz was in Washington. Asked by a journalist how the US could do this, considering Germany involvement, he responded: "I promise you: we will be able to do it."

Social Democratic involvement

For now, Nord Stream 2 is not going anywhere and though the project might currently be on ice, it can be rekindled at anytime. This would also prevent problems amid Scholz's Social Democrats. Manuela Schwesig, the state minister of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the pipeline comes to an end on the German side, has done everything to ensure that the pipeline project is completed. For now, she will be able to do nothing but follow the example set by the federal government in Berlin, but her secret hope will be that the pipeline is connected to the natural gas grid at some point. 

Looking more closely, therefore, it seems that Scholz has made a smart move. One might even say that he is bluffing. By making Nord Stream 2 Germany's contribution to the sanctions, he can show that his country is a loyal ally but at the same time leave all options open. He has perhaps even managed to gain an advantage by which he can actively decide on future developments.

It is former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder who will probably be most relieved that Nord Stream 2 has not been halted for good. A close friend of  Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Social Democrat is intimately acquainted with Russia's energy sector. He is already chairman of the Nord Stream AG shareholders' committee, president of the Nord Stream 2 AG board of directors and chairman of the board of directors of Russian energy giant Rosneft. He was also recently nominated to join the board of directors at Gazprom. Perhaps because Putin hopes to be able to influence the decision of Germany's new Social Democratic chancellor? 

Olaf Scholz is not impressed. That much is clear.

This article was originally written in German.