Stopping 'Orbanization'
January 18, 2012
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, intoxicated by the scope of his power, promised to turn things on their head in the once Communist country after his comprehensive election win in April 2010. At least this is one promise that the conservative leader has kept. Hungary is well on the way towards "Orbanization" and Europe is now finally sounding the alarm bells.
Bolstered by a two-thirds majority in parliament, Orban, who has a penchant for making nationalistic noises, has been trying to install loyal followers in every key political and judicial position.
A step too far
Resistance first started brewing in Europe last year, when Orban moved to silence critical media in Hungary. Due to pressure from Brussels, the proposed media reforms had to be watered down - and all this took place while Hungary held the European Union's rotating presidency.
Now, one year later, Viktor Orban has overstepped the mark. Two new measures proved too much for the European Commission in Brussels: a new constitution dressed up in nationalist language; and the new limitations to the independence of Hungary's central bank. The Commission sees itself as the guardian of EU treaties, and is therefore quite justified in launching three cases against Hungary for possible breach of European law.
Such trials are not necessarily anything out of the ordinary. The Commission carries out hundreds every year, because various EU laws are thought not to have been correctly implemented at the national level. Even Germany has been taken to task, regarding, for example, the law regulating the ownership of shares in Volkswagen and how Germany's quasi state-owned moneylenders ("Landesbanken") are financed.
This trial against Hungary has a different feel. This time it's about political keystones of European democracy. It's rare for a member state to be as reluctant or obstinate. Prime Minister Orban, who feels he is under personal attack from bureaucrats in Brussels, plans to visit Strasbourg on Wednesday (18.1.2012) to argue against the procedures, in the European Parliament. That's by no means standard practice.
Budapest needs Brussels
The EU has good chances of pushing its objections through if only because, as fate would have it, Hungary desperately needs Europe's support in the coming weeks. Viktor Orban has led the country to the brink of ruin with ill-fated economic policies and now needs emergency loans from the EU and the International Monetary Fund. So long as the complaints contained in these legal challenges remain on the table, Orban's government does not qualify for the loans.
Support among the electorate is also crumbling. Were elections held today, Orban's Fidesz party probably would not maintain its outright majority in parliament.
Escalation conceivable
If Viktor Orban chooses not to acquiesce to the European Commission's concerns, then the EU's next crisis is already in sight. The Hungarian government could seek to portray any conflict with Brussels as a fight for national sovereignty.
The Commission, together with the European Court of Human Rights, is obliged to uphold the laws, in extreme cases with financial sanctions or the removal of voting rights in Brussels and Strasbourg. The latter option, however, would only be possible on a different legal basis.
There is also a real danger that Hungary's far-right could profit from this spat. They have already been demonstrating on the streets of Budapest, demanding that Hungary pull out of the EU. The extreme right Jobbik party is the third largest in parliament, but it doesn't play much of a political role at the moment because of Fidesz's massive majority.
Viktor Orban, who often throws a smattering of authoritarian and nationalist color into his own speeches, is now in a position to dictate Hungary's future European path. Should he concede on Wednesday, the conflict would quickly recede. But if he chooses to strike a more nationalist tone, then Europe can expect to face some choppy waters in the near future - not just on the financial markets.
Himself a product of a democratic uprising, Viktor Orban now cuts a figure that is more than a combination of Silvio Berlusconi's arrogance and Vladimir Putin's remoteness from democracy. A "flawless democrat" on the Danube? That's something the EU doesn't deserve.
Author: Bernd Riegert / msh
Editor: Chuck Penfold