So far, Germany's election campaign has been marked by contradiction: On the one hand, it's been boring beyond belief — the debates have been lackluster, and you'd be hard-pressed to find any meaningful polarization across the political spectrum.
On the other hand, as things stand, the outcome of the election will be more exciting than ever before. Right now, there's no telling who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor, nor which parties will form the new government.
What makes this election even more compelling is that the incumbent chancellor is not running for reelection — a first in the history of post-war Germany. But that alone does not explain why it's such an open race. It actually reminds me of last year's presidential election in the United States, where disenchanted voters would have preferred neither candidate. The German election is shaping up almost the same way.
It's getting complicated
The popularity ratings of Armin Laschet, the joint candidate of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have been in steady decline for weeks. Likewise, the appeal of Annalena Baerbock, the chancellor candidate of the Greens, is waning fast.
The Social Democrats (SPD) and their candidate, current Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, almost can't believe their luck. Written off as having no chance at all, he's turned out to be the surprise package of the summer.
Depending on which polls you trust, the SPD are either running neck-and-neck or have even overtaken the CDU/CSU. The last time the SPD reached such giddy heights was 15 years ago.
However, given that all of these three parties are hovering around the 20%-mark, it looks like Germany's traditional two-party coalition has reached its expiration date. Conversely, this means that things are going to get complicated.
A total of four three-party coalitions are politically conceivable: CDU/CSU, SPD, and the Greens; CDU/CSU and the Free Democrats (FDP); SPD, FDP and the Greens; and CDU/CSU, FDP and the Greens. None of these constellations would be a match made in heaven.
The painful process for forming a governing coalition four years ago does not bode well for what we may have to endure this time. Back then, the CDU/CSU, the Greens and the FDP negotiated for weeks, yet ultimately failed to find common ground.
I, for one, am hesitant to dismiss those voices who predicted that Merkel's 2020 New Year's Eve address would not be her last, after all. And this would be by necessity. If there's no new government and no chancellor in place by then, Merkel would remain in office as acting chancellor.
Fragile coalition government with a weak chancellor
The public could take this in stride. The country will not exactly grind to a halt if it lacks a government for a few months. Taxes will go on being collected; police, courts, schools, and universities will operate as usual; civil servants, pensioners and other benefit recipients will continue to receive their money.
Granted, it might havean impact on the European Union, which tends to freeze like a rabbit caught in the headlights without Germany's leadership.
Regardless of potential post-election permutations for a coalition, the new government will be a fragile entity. The conundrum for the next chancellor will be to make sure the coalition government doesn't implode at the merest hint of domestic in-fighting while grappling with formidable foreign policy challenges at the same time.
In any case, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Joe Biden will be watching closely and ready to pounce at the slightest sign of any weakness.