One hundred days. Is that a lot or a little? Who is winning and who is losing? Taking stock of a war is a lot different than assessing the first 100 days in office of a new government.
It is a lot, because many observers, especially in the West, believed at the beginning that Kyiv's resistance to Russia's invasion would only last for two or three days.
That's why some countries, including Germany, mistakenly hesitated to supply weapons. In contrast, deliveries from others, especially the US and UK, resembled an assembly line. In doing so, they helped prevent an early Ukrainian defeat. The first lesson since the war began is that quick arms deliveries save lives.
Sticking with the example of Germany: The transition from the helmets promised in February to the current announcement to deliver state-of-the-art IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine took almost three months. That is far too long, even taking into account Germany's history. Berlin can do better, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz's recent pledge suggests that a different approach is possible. The government needs to continue on this course without further delays.
Russia wants to occupy most of Ukraine
However, 100 days is also not that much, because the war is really just beginning. Russia initially tried a blitzkrieg tactic. When that failed it switched to attrition tactics. To use an analogy: You don't swallow an apple whole in order not to choke, but instead, keep biting off a piece at a time. Ukraine is like that apple.
And that brings us to the second lesson of this war.
Russia, unfortunately, is indeed just as insane as the populist propaganda talk shows have preached for years and which many ignored. This does not bode well for Ukraine, for Europe, and for the world. President Vladimir Putin has launched a revanchist war of annihilation and will not stop. Moscow's threat of nuclear weapons is not a bluff.
Which means that everything must be done to stop him now, not later. Because later may be too late. Ukraine is losing soldiers, civilians and territory every day and every hour. It's estimated that tens of thousands of people have lost their lives, just one of the bitter impacts of the war after the first 100 days.
Russia's goals are clear: in the short to medium term, it wants to occupy as much of Ukraine as it can; cut off the country from access to the sea, and wipe out anything Ukrainian. If that succeeds, other countries in Eastern Europe will be blackmailed into submitting to Moscow or risk war.
War fatigue threatens to diminish willingness to help
The most dangerous phase of this war is only just beginning. The fiercest fighting is currently raging in the Donbas region. The Ukrainian army deployed there is well prepared, because it had eight years to do so and managed to stall Russian forces from advancing in the initial stages. However, the tide is beginning to turn because Moscow is concentrating all its firepower along one section of the frontline and starting to establish a clear superiority.
If Russia succeeds in the Donbas, it could then more quickly bomb its way towards central Ukraine and try once again to take Kyiv and overthrow the government. Putin has no interest in negotiations because he believes he has more and better resources.
This phase is also dangerous because the war has become just another crisis. Other issues now dominate the headlines and war fatigue is setting in just before the vacation season. Public attention is waning, which in turn threatens to diminish the willingness to help. We must not allow this to happen.
Talk of peace in Ukraine is illusory right now. The country urgently needs heavy weapons, but also tougher sanctions. The oil embargo, negotiated with great difficulty, must come into force and be tightened soon. The hour of diplomacy will not arrive until the Russian advance is at least halted. A hot summer of war is looming. Every day counts.
This piece was originally written in German.