No time for a truce
The Russian embassy in Kyiv is deserted, diplomats have been withdrawn, and only security guards are holding out: Only recently the appointment of a new Russian Ambassador to Ukraine failed because the Ukrainian government blocked it. Moscow, in turn, has not seen any ambassador from Kyiv for months. Effectively, there are currently no diplomatic ties between the two nations - although there has never been something like a formal severance of relations.
'Great war' in the offing?
Pessimists will regard this diplomatic limbo as a further indication of the upcoming "great war" between the two countries. Indeed, there are a number of indicators: the fighting along the demarcation line in the East is becoming more intense from week to week; the Minsk ceasefire agreement has been reduced to a blood-stained paper exercise. Observers report that more and more heavy weapons are being moved to the front. In addition, military experts in Russia and in NATO countries point to major troop movement of Russian units in the border area. This is, alternatively, called a "regrouping," or a "deployment." Both sound threatening.
Add to that the latest development: the Russian intelligence service FSB claims to have foiled a Ukrainian terror attack on the Crimean Peninsula; two Russians are reported to have lost their lives in the wake of the alleged Ukrainian aggression. Russian President Vladimir Putin immediately concluded that now there'll be no more high-level talks about the Minsk agreement. Is Russia only looking for a pretext to strike Ukraine?
Didn't Russia's war against Georgia, which now dates back exactly eight years, break out in August, too? Didn't Olympic Games take place at the time, too - which distracted the world community? Doesn't the West seem paralyzed - with the US involved in a presidential election campaign, and the Europeans weakened? When, if not now? That's a question Kremlin hardliners may ask themselves, giving free rein to their expansionist designs. From their imperial view - which envisages a Greater Russia - the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and covert military support for the separatists in the Donbass region can, surely, not be the last word in history.
Spoiling the Independence Day party
That kind of conjecture, interpretations of military givens and the bare facts of the fighting in Eastern Ukraine amalgamate into a cocktail tasting a lot like war. It is a concoction blended in the Kremlin's cauldron, whose vapors evoke acute nervousness in Kyiv and induce nausea in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris.
Putin, by dint of his military posturing, obviously wants to assume control of all those procedures which could, quite soon, decide Ukraine's fate. The Russian leadership, however, would forfeit this position of power if it risked open war for the sake of a strip of land in Eastern Ukraine. In that case, economic sanctions by the West would be tightened even more and weaken Russia's economy further.
Consequently, Russia will probably continue to resort to threatening gestures and pinpricks. On August 24, Ukraine celebrates its independence from Moscow, lasting now for a quarter of a century. The Kremlin rulers obviously want to make sure that this party will be thoroughly spoiled for the Ukrainians.
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