Russia's Future

The guessing game is over. For months now, Russian politics have been dominated by the question of who will succeed Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2008. Russian law prevents presidents from standing for a third term of office. Speculation was rife about Putin's next move. One scenario put forward was that Putin would alter the constitution. Another saw Putin naming a stand-in president, then returning to office after having fulfilled the constitution's technical requirements. It was difficult to imagine Russia being governed by another politician after eight years of Putin.

Medvedev certain to be elected

The Russian president has decided to back Dmitry Medvedev, first deputy prime minister and board chairman of gas giant Gazprom, to stand as a presidential candidate in March 2008. Given what happened in Russian parliamentary poll in early December, it is practically certain that Medvedev will be elected in the first round of the elections on March 2. The Kremlin propaganda machine functions magnificently, the administrative apparatus runs smoothly, and the significant size of Russian security forces remove any lingering doubt about the outcome of the poll.

There is no point in bemoaning the poor prospects for democracy in Russia in the light of such political relations. The vague and possibly premature hopes for a rapid democratization of Russia were snuffed out some time ago.

With his decision in favor of Medvedev, President Putin has made a bold move and answered a number of questions about himself and Russia's future course.

Not just a fill-in

President Putin will step down as president in March 2008. The intention is that 42-year-old Medvedev should be president for the next four years -- in all likelihood much longer. Medvedev is completely unsuited to just act as a stand-in who would keep the presidential post warm for Putin. In this respect, Putin has remained true to himself -- in spite of what all his opponents and his sycophantic supporters have said. After all, he always said he would not violate the constitution in order to remain in office.

However, the end of Putin's presidential era does not spell the end of Putin as the leading light in Russian politics. He will retain considerable influence over Russian politics as head of United Russia, or possibly as prime minister. We will have to wait and see if Putin will take up Medvedev's offer to take on the job of PM under him. At any rate, Medvedev is not expected to usher in any decisive course change. Putin's longstanding ally has always been directly involved from the outset in shaping and representing Putin's policies in his previous posts. Medvedev looks set to continue pursuing Putin's goal of modernizing Russia because he shares his convictions. The loyal technocrat is the ideal candidate to ensure that Putin's course is maintained without the current president having to resort to any trickery with the constitution.

Past will burden relations with Europe

President Medvedev will be blemished by the fact that he has emerged from Putin's powerhouse. His previous role as chair of the board at Gazprom will also not help his popularity in Europe given the poor image of the Russia energy giant here. On the other hand, Medvedev is not the worst candidate from amongst the current Russian elite. The former law professor from St. Petersburg is reputed to be one of the more liberal spirits in the Kremlin. In addition, he has no direct contacts to the Soviet or the post-Soviet security services. And given his relative youth, he also stands for a new Russia that Europe -- and the West in general -- will have to learn to live with.

The Russian president's decision to select Medvedev is not likely to find favor with all of the factions who Putin can currently rally behind him. The effects of a change in president in terms of who has what access to important financial and business resources are not likely to be clear for a while, and the process will not be without its tensions. The question is whether the first cracks within Russia's Kremlin elite will already have become apparent ahead of the elections in March, thus threatening the transfer of power. Then things could get tricky for Putin as the one responsible for naming Medvedev his political heir.

Ingo Mannteufel heads DW-WORLD.DE's Russian department (jeg)