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Markets plunging — keep calm and carry on

February 6, 2018

Plummeting stocks have shocked traders. After a long stretch of serenity, an unexpected storm has hit stock exchanges. We're witnessing a worldwide sell-off, but things will calm down shortly, says DW's Henrik Böhme.

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NYSE traders
Image: Getty Images/S. Platt

In hindsight, the last few months really were pretty boring. Markets knew only one direction — up. No journey should be too predictable if excitement is what you're after.

Led by Wall Street, the world's financial hub, global stocks rose and rose for the past 18 months. Since Donald Trump, the businessman and self-proclaimed dealmaker, entered the White House, the surge became even more pronounced.

Factor in historically low interest rates and markets awash with billions of extra dollars and euros waiting to be invested in real estate and stocks, and we were dealing with something of a boom.

All quiet on the Twitter front

The Dow had seen more than 70 new records since Trump was elected president. Each time a record was broken, he tweeted to mark the occasion. But now that the index is falling hard — it just suffered one of the sharpest collapses in its history — Trump is keeping conspicuously mum about it all.

Read alsoEuropean markets plunge as stock market dip deepens

Naturally, everyone now wants to know what has caused this sudden crash. Do I need to sell my shares? Will markets drop even further? The collapse is confusing because on the economic surface, all seems to be calm. Growth forecasts are positive for all major world regions. On the other hand, the yields for sovereign state bonds are on the rise, with stocks usually not moving in tandem.

DW business editor Henrik Böhme
DW business editor Henrik Böhme

There may be some reasons to sell your shares, if only because of the prospect of more change in US interest policy. If interest rates rise, there will be less motivation to invest in an already overheated stock market. In addition, unemployment keeps falling in the US, with wages rising.

This could lead to higher consumer prices which may prompt the Fed to raise interest rates even faster. Also, analysts are wary of the US president's current run-in with the FBI and the Justice Department. There are rumors that investors are selling shares over fears that the US is heading towards a constitutional crisis.

'Black Monday' it ain't

As if that weren't enough, there's also the matter of the highly sensitive computer programs that control almost all of the stock market trade; the machines that make transactions happen within milliseconds. If the drop in stocks' values is as hefty as it was on Monday, these programs generate even more sell signals, thus triggering a snowball effect.

Asian shares tumble after Dow has worst day since 2011

But despite the current turmoil, the dive is probably nothing more than a natural market adjustment and a healthy development for what has been an overheated market.

Read also: Dow Jones in largest drop since 2011

During the famous "Black Monday" of 1987, the Dow shed a staggering 23 percent of its value. Monday's 4.3-percent drop seems to pale in comparison, doesn't it?

The point is: Don't panic. Breath easy. Keep calm and carry on. And for Donald Trump, perhaps this is a moment when he may wonder if stock market values have as much to do with his policies as he previously thought.