Loss of face

Only a few weeks ago, western leaders were hailing President Karzai's courage in accepting a run-off vote as a sign that the country was on the right path toward more democracy and stability.

Now, the very same leaders are scrambling to welcome the cancellation of the run-off ballot and congratulating a president whose reelection is the result of blatant fraud, vote-rigging and intimidation. The international community will argue that this latest twist in the saga offers Karzai the opportunity to get on with the job of running a country, that it means avoiding a potentially messy run-off vote that could have resulted in even more political limbo. The UN will heave a sigh of relief that its election monitors will not be embroiled in further irregularities, while the Obama administration can concentrate on a new military strategy for Afghanistan instead of wasting its resources on securing yet another potentially flawed election.

This change of tack is almost breathtaking in its blatant disregard for what the people of Afghanistan wanted, namely the chance to show the world that their country respects and employs democratic values notwithstanding all the pre-and postelection problems.

Many will feel they were robbed of an opportunity, but the international community will undoubtedly find ways and arguments to justify backing a president whom they had previously offered little more than lukewarm support.

Still, the West must now be pinning its hopes on Karzai's erstwhile opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, who, recognizing that his chances of winning the run off were slim, decided that he can be a more effective thorn in Karzai's side as an opposition force. Although he has ruled out being part of a unity government with Karzai, western observers feel that Abdullah would be unable to turn down a prestigious post such as the president of a commission on constitutional reform. From there he would be in a formidable position biding his time as a president or prime minister in waiting.

Meanwhile, the cancellation has also played into the hands of the Taliban. They will argue that their intimidation tactics and threats of violence paid off, that they forced Abdullah's hand. Yes, many potential voters may have been scared, but the will to have a say in the future of their country was always going to be stronger as demonstrated in the first round of voting.

Abdullah has done the West no favors by pulling out of the run-off vote, but the disservice to his own country is even greater. Nonetheless, he may by the West's only hope if the frustration over a discredited and weakened president spills over into protests and unrest.

Rob Mudge is the head of background international at DW's English Service
Editor. Michael Knigge