Dwindling protests

It was the question everyone asked before the start of the demonstrations. The question was straight, but the answer was not: How many protesters would go out on the streets on Sunday to demand the democratic election of Hong Kong's chief administrator without the pre-selection of candidates?

The estimates ranged from a few thousand to tens of thousands. The organizers had even announced the figure could be more than 50,000. The numbers are now known: Only around a fifth turned out. The organizers said 13,000. Less than 9,000 said the police. The real figure probably sits somewhere inbetween.

Two reasons for the declining number of protesters

Around 10,000 is still an impressive number. However, the masses that in the fall of 2014 gathered behind the call for a "real choice," can no longer be mobilized in the former British colony. There are primarily two main reasons for this. The movement was already exhausted in the final weeks of last year - mainly young people occupied major roads and camped out in the open air. Secondly, apparently for many it's "run out of steam". The number of protesters continued to fall. By then, the government had cleared three protest camps one-by-one: first in the Admiralty district, then in Mong Kok, and finally, in Causeway Bay.

The unyielding stance of the Hong Kong administration and the government in Beijing are also another reason. Neither has budged much since the beginning of the protests, at least not concerning the demonstrators' main demands. In mid-January, Hong Kong Chief Secretary Carrie Lam, who had held talks with the student leaders just last fall, said that the constitutional development in Hong Kong must be based on Hong Kong's Basic Law as well as the decision by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. Leung Chun-ying, the city's chief executive, declared that acts that are illegal and "disrupt the public order" would not influence the government's action.

Not a good sign for a democratic future

So what does that mean for the former British Crown Colony? Presumably, there will still be demonstrations like the Sunday protest.

But, at least for the time being, it's not conceivable that the masses will take to the streets like they did in the fall of 2014. It is even less likely that significantly smaller crowd swill have an impact on the Hong Kong administration, or Beijing.

More democracy - which is what the protesters demand - isn't on the horizon in Hong Kong any time soon.