Opinion: Germany Not Ready For Change

After this election evening, only one thing is absolutely clear: Germany isn't ready for change. And that is the worst signal for the future government.

German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder wanted endorsement for the continuation of his reform course -- but he didn't get it. Despite pulling off a relatively good electoral performance under the circumstances -- thanks to the personal commitment of the chancellor alone -- Red-Green (Social Democrats and the Greens) have been voted out of power.

Angela Merkel, the CDU leader, wanted a clear mandate for even more radical reforms, but she didn't get it either. The votes aren't sufficient for her desired black-yellow coalition with the free-market liberal FDP.

Though Merkel can still become Germany's first female chancellor, the lead over the SPD (Social Democrats) is too slim.

Grand coalition only way out

The likely "grand coalition" between the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and the SPD won't and can't be the best outcome.

A weakened CDU with a vulnerable leader and a still-incumbent chancellor from the SPD who has already staked a clear claim to leadership even though his policies have led to a split in the center-left camp in Germany and whose party looks worse than ever -- that really can't work well.

And yet, a grand coalition is the best in the present situation because it's the only possible solution for Germany that can actually be carried out.

A red-red-green alliance between the SPD, the Left Party and the Greens won't happen. Despite the dreams of some old leftists, there won't be a big social front of reunited center-left groups. The Greens have moved too close to the center, the rifts between the SPD and the Left Party are too deep and the personal wounds inflicted by the leadership of both parties too serious.

No Jamaica or traffic light coalition

Equally impossible is a so-called Jamaican coalition between the conservatives, the FDP and the Greens.

The colorful alliance made up of the national colors of the Caribbean country would undoubtedly have charm, but no chance of realizing their policies. The parties may not be that far apart when it comes to civil rights, but it's still questionable whether the Greens would go along with it. The latter has after all been stable in its electoral result because it stayed true to itself. Thus the Greens could manage well in the opposition.

What remains is a so-called traffic light coalition between the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. It could have a clear majority in parliament, mathematically speaking, but it wouldn't be stable.

The Greens, whose leadership has repeatedly ruled out an alliance with the FDP, would have deep reservations. In addition, the FDP entered the race with a clear avowal of black-yellow regeneration. The FDP would lose its newly-won strength by years -- as it did twice in German postwar history -- if it was to defect to another political camp.

The liberals could position themselves better in opposition and would thus play for time -- after all one doesn't have to be a prophet to predict that a grand coalition would be relatively short-lived in power.

Germany might need new elections again

The conservatives and the SPD must build a government together.

Despite the large majority in parliament, the grand coalition's governing leeway would be limited. In the upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, this alliance has a one-vote majority if all conservative-led states always agreed with the government. But in the face of the several ambitious state premiers who didn't even offer their chancellor candidate their unlimited support during the election campaign, it seems unlikely.

The SPD on the other hand would be torn between the necessity of pragmatic governance and a strong, internal leftist opposition. That Gerhard Schröder, of all persons, has staked a claim to lead the SPD as chancellor in such a situation, borders on delusions of power. After all it was he who called early elections -- precisely to escape such a situation.

It's quite possible that CDU and SPD might have to replace their leadership so that a grand coalition can take shape at all.

But it's also possible that Germany may soon need new elections again.