The war isn't over

Until recently there was fighting in eastern Ukraine while the two sides were struggling to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Belarusian capital Minsk. With massive Russian support, the separatists have pushed the front south of Donetsk in the past few days, capturing the strategically important city of Mariupol. Under this military pressure, Kyiv agreed to a ceasefire. For the people who continue to hold out in the region, it is good news - as well as for the soldiers in a Ukrainian army on the defensive.

Ukraine had no choice. In fact, it capitulated to Russia's superiority. Russia's role is now far too great, with tanks, rockets and more and more new soldiers. The cynical and dishonest Kremlin continues to deny this is the case. But that it continues to lead the war in Ukraine is now well documented. Russian soldiers were captured and the fallen are buried in Russian cemeteries. Braver elements of the Russian media and the Union of the Committees of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia have now reported it even inside Russia.

Poroshenko is right - and under duress

With the ceasefire, Ukrainian President Poroshenko made a decision under duress. But it makes sense and there is no alternative. The war cannot be won militarily. Poroshenko knows that, so he wants to end the killing. But Russia demands a high price: the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk will remain in the hands of the separatists. A "security zone," from which the Ukrainian army must withdraw will be created at the request of the Kremlin. This moves Moscow one step closer to its goal: the conflict can be frozen and the region will in the long run remain outside the control of Kyiv.

Poroshenko is receiving criticism in Ukraine, even from within his own government. Reports of success had fueled army hopes for a military solution to the crisis. It was not just nationalists who protested against Poroshenko's decision. Many Ukrainians were disappointed. Some regard Poroshenko and his government's orientation towards Europe as the wrong choice, and that the Kremlin may be in the right. Moscow is probably hoping that, a few weeks ahead of planned parliamentary elections, the domestic political climate in Ukraine will continue to heat up and that the democratic reform process fails.

Only a respite

For the separatists and the Russian special forces, the ceasefire means a first respite. They can now consolidate their positions. And they can regroup, perhaps for an attack on other areas in eastern Ukraine. Therein lies the great danger, if it proves impossible to transform the ceasefire into a permanent truce.

Russian President Vladimir Putin may have already given the go-ahead for further attacks. He recently questioned the statehood of Ukraine. He brought up the notion of "Novorossiya" (New Russia), a vast area that could reach from Donetsk and Luhansk to Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa. This area was conquered by the Russian Empire during the 18th century war with the Ottoman Empire, but was never an independent state. Above all, Putin may want to create a corridor to the annexed Crimean peninsula, which can currently only be reached from Russia by sea or air.

Ukraine needs urgent international support. Some Ukrainians are already talking about treason and collusion between the West and Moscow, because Europe and the US have left them virtually alone militarily. Defensive military equipment, communications technology and protective vests are only hesitantly supplied to Ukraine. The military restraint in the West is justified, because nobody wants a war with Russia. Ukraine no longer has this choice. They are at war with Russia. And the ceasefire hasn't changed this predicament.