No winners in Brazilian election
To some, he's a "tiny tropical Hitler," while to others, he's a "messiah," as his middle name suggests: Jair Messias Bolsonaro, the far-right front-runner in Brazil's presidential election, could come out victorious in Sunday's runoff.
A triumph by the 63-year-old former paratrooper would amount to a Brazilian withdrawal from democracy. Freedom and the rule of law would crash-land a mere 33 years after the end of the military dictatorship the country had to endure between 1964 and 1985.
The destructive power of fake news
The imminent "Braxit" is the result of an ongoing political crisis lasting for five years now, and of an anti-democratic election campaign. In Brazil, the destructive power of fake news has reached an unprecedented level, discharging hatred against the presidential candidate fielded by the Workers' Party (PT), Fernando Haddad.
Just a reminder: PT has been out of government for two years. The party ruled Brazil between 2003 and 2016 and received international accolades for its successful programs combating poverty. As a result of the gigantic bribery scandal surrounding the semipublic oil company Petrobras, former President Dilma Rousseff was removed from office in August 2016, although she was never found guilty of committing any crime. Her predecessor in office, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, was convicted of corruption and jailed.
License to hate
Brazil is not the first country in which digital hate campaigns have had a significant impact on election campaigns and referendums. However, the enormous reach of Facebook and Twitter in a country that is by far South America's largest has led to a political earthquake, one whose impact was underestimated both by traditional media and by Brazil's highest electoral court, the TSE (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral).
Brazil's election campaign brings back memories of the 2016 Brexit campaign: A professionally managed, digital propaganda outfit spreads false news with impunity, well aware that corrections will not succeed in stopping the rolling avalanche of mental confusion among voters.
And the tropical tragedy is far from over. Whoever emerges victorious from Sunday's runoff election will not bring political stability to Brazil. In case of an – unlikely – election victory of PT candidate Haddad, the result could be challenged by Bolsonaro's angry supporters and trigger a surge of violence.
Gloomy predictions
An election victory by Bolsonaro, on the other hand, would be marred by three factors: It will face fierce resistance in parts of both parliament and civil society. In addition, due to Bolsonaro's health problems in the wake of a knife attack at the beginning of September, it may well be possible that his controversial running mate, Reserve General Hamilton Mourao, will handle the daily government duties.
The most serious problem, however, is an election rigging complaint filed with Brazil's top electoral court. Bolsonaro is being accused of having received campaign support by companies that already funded a mass circulation of false news on social media prior to the first ballot on October 7. Should the TSE probe confirm a breach of Brazilian electoral laws, Bolsonaro's candidacy and the entire presidential election process could be nullified after the fact.
On a theoretical level, this sounds logical: Election results based on fake news cannot be valid. After all, without the false news the results would presumably have been different. The crucial question, however, is: Will the court de facto be capable of invalidating the elections and order a rerun?
The British model
Brazil has the opportunity to put a stop to digital election rigging. It could become a point of reference for democracy's victory over fake news and misanthropic hatemongers active on the internet. It could lead the way when it comes to a long overdue regulation of social media platforms such as Facebook, WhatsApp and Twitter.
It could. It's more likely, however, that Brazil will follow the British model: vote first, weep later. For Brazil, a "Braxit" would have devastating consequences, similar to those of a Brexit for Britain. In a best-case scenario, what could be in store for the country is four more years of political paralysis and discontent. At worst, it could be the start of a new dictatorship.