An unhappy ending is a bad beginning

Martin Schulz, chairman of Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD), epitomizes his party's present state: his one-hour talk at the SPD party congress in Bonn lacked optimism and excitement, evoking a similarly tepid response from the 600 delegates in attendance. Schulz, who just a year ago left his role as president of the European Parliament to become leader of the SPD and put the party into a collective frenzy of exaltation, now stands with his back against the wall. He has taken a major political hit; he seems exhausted. 

Unlike the SPD's youth wing, the "Jusos", who vehemently oppose the party joining another grand coalition government. Their "unnecessary protest," as some party leaders quipped, certainly resonated with a large share of delegates. Some 44 percent of them voted against taking up formal coalition talks. Only 56 percent agreed with their own party head and other functionaries who favored coalition talks.

Sunday's result will motivate the "Jusos" and other critics of a new grand coalition to whip up further opposition among the SPD rank-and-file. Because ultimately, it's the 450,000 SPD members throughout Germany who will get to vote on the final coalition agreement once formal talks are concluded.

Andrea Nahles: A better pick for party leader? 

This does not bode well for the party and its leadership. Already, a deep rift divides the SPD. And this rift will become wider over time.

Within the party, two camps with entirely different mindsets are pitted against each other. Both sides can marshal good arguments in their favor. But both positions come with substantial risks: Renewing the grand coalition with the Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party Christian Social Union (CSU) could enfeeble the SPD. Yet fresh elections could equally weaken the Social Democrats. There simply is no ideal solution. It's a dilemma.

Whether Martin Schulz will be able to maneuver the SPD out of this severe crisis – arguably the gravest in its history – remains unknown. Andrea Nahles, who leads the SPD in Germany's parliament, might be better suited to this challenge. Her passionate and powerful speech at the Bonn party conference was just what party leader Schulz lacked. The message and intensity of her speech won over many delegates. Nahles may even have been able to convince some skeptics when she promised that coalition talks would be a fight to the end.

Between a rock and a hard place

There were numerous skeptics among the delegates in Bonn. Those who flat-out oppose a grand coalition are generally difficult to convince otherwise. But by and large, none of the delegates were wholeheartedly in favor of a new grand coalition. Reservations remain.

Those who did vote for coalition talks, and thus a new coalition government, did so because it represented the lesser of two evils. And the 450,000 SPD members who will vote on the final coalition agreement, too, will face a choice between a rock and a hard place. 

But how is such a divided party supposed to govern a country? A party, where the rank-and-file distrusts its leadership to such an extent that it has taken on almost grotesque proportions. With "those up there" and "those down here" at odds, how is the SPD supposed to win over the electorate?  

The Social Democrats, who have grown increasingly weak over the past years, must be cautious. Thus far, they are "merely" unhappy. But if the party fails to embark on its path of renewal, voters could lose all faith in the SPD and condemn it to obscurity.