Collective rule

The main square of Pyongyang was packed with tens of thousands of mourners who turned out en masse on Wednesday despite heavy snow to pay their last respects to their "Dear Leader." Women wept as they filed past a huge portrait of Kim Jong Il who died of a heart attack on Saturday.

An 11-day period of mourning has been declared until he is buried in a state funeral on December 28/29. His son Kim Jong Un, the "Great Successor," is presiding over the proceedings, consolidating his image at home and abroad as the isolated country’s new political face.

Collective rule

At the same time, however, it would seem a committee is forming around the inexperienced young man that will collectively rule the country, which faces the challenges of a tattered economy and crippling food and energy shortages.

Although he does have his supporters, analysts doubt Kim Jong Un is strong enough to consolidate power.

An unnamed high-level North Korean source with close ties to Pyongyang and Beijing told Reuters that the collective leadership would include the young man, his uncle Jang Song Thaek, and the military.

Jang Song Thaek and his wife, Kim Jong Il's sister, are seen to be the power behind the throne.

Koh Yu Hwan, president of the Korean Association of North Korean Studies in Seoul, told Reuters that the coterie had been put in place by Kim Jong Il before he died. "The relative calm seen these few days shows it’s been effective," he said. "If things were not running smoothly, then we'd have seen a long period of 'rule by mummy,' with Kim Jong Il being faked as still being alive."

Military coup ruled out

A leaked South Korean Defense Ministry report revealed on Wednesday that some North Korean units conducting winter drills had returned to base after Kim Jong Il’s death was announced. However, a South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman said the government had not spotted any particular troop movements in North Korea.

Speculation of a military coup was also ruled out by Reuters' source, who reportedly said that the military had already pledged allegiance to Kim Jong Un.

He also said that North Korea's test-firing of a missile on Monday was a warning to the US to not make any moves, saying there were no plans for any future tests unless Pyongyang was "provoked" by the US or South Korea.

Balloon launches on the border

Meanwhile, a few dozen South Korean activists and North Korean defectors risked the ire of the North Korean military by seeing off balloons carrying 200,000 leaflets criticizing the North Korean regime near the heavily militarized border. Some 40 people gathered on the outskirts of Paju, which is just three kilometers away from the border, and chanted: "We welcome the death of Kim Jong Il."

In the past, North Korea has threatened to retaliate against such balloon launches and South Korea has put pressure on activists to refrain from them, but this week there has been no attempt to stop the leaflet drops.

South Korea's military has been on high alert since the weekend.

Author: Anne Thomas (dpa, AP, AFP, Reuters)
Editor: Sarah Berning