Britain and Brussels

Klaus Larres, professor of history and international relations at the University of Ulster, is currently a visiting professor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington. He has published extensively on Britain and British foreign policy.

Deutsche Welle: The predictions about the British election have come true. For the first time in decades there is a hung parliament. What is your assessment of the situation and the most likely scenario?

Klaus Larres: It looks as though Prime Minister Gordon Brown has the right to form a government as the incumbent prime minister, so he will talk to the Liberal Democrats. And at the same time the Conservative leader David Cameron will also talk to the Liberal Democrats. So the Liberal Democrats have really turned it into a situation which in Germany the small FDP had for a decade: they are the kingmakers. They can decide who to form a government with.

The Conservatives will be the strongest party in parliament and therefore make a claim to form the new government. What does that mean for Europe and British foreign policy? After all Tory leader David Cameron is considered a euro-skeptic and has taken his party out of the alliance of the European People's Party.

Yes, but it is by no means clear whether he will be able to form a new government. But if he were fortunate enough to get enough seats and votes together than he could embark on forming a government and his government would certainly be more euro-skeptic than a Labour and Liberal Democrat government. But I think one shouldn't exaggerate the claims and statements made during an election campaign.

So while David Cameron is not a pro-Europe fanatic, whether he will be another Mrs. Thatcher who was very skeptical about a more integrated Europe - that is another question. During the election campaign he had to pander to his own party's anti-European right wing, so he had to come out with perhaps more severe anti-European statements than the way he would govern if he was able to form a government. So I am not that pessimistic that we would really see much of a difference in this regard in David Cameron's European policy. There might be nuances that might be different, but I don't think he would adopt a totally hostile attitude. But what is certainly sure is that Britain would not join the Euro in the foreseeable future. I think that is certain under a government led by David Cameron, but it would probably also be the case if Labour is returned to power.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown and his Labour Party have lost their majority in parliament, but according to British election rules has the right to try to build a government. Will he be able to that after this defeat at the polls?

He may just be able to do so. But he is in a predicament because he and the Labour Party lost votes and seats and the Liberal Democrats lost votes and seats. So if the two parties were able to form a new coalition government they are morally in a weak position because it would be a government of the two defeated parties. And that is never going to convince the voters and above all they won't be able to convince the markets.

The British pound has already gone down on the international currency markets, the UK is on track to have the largest deficit of any country in Europe and a weak government formed by parties which have actually lost the election - that will not go down too well and will not stabilize the British economy and the British currency. So whether that is really the best solution for the country I very much doubt.

As you just mentioned, the Liberal Democrats fared worse than they expected, winning less seats than five years ago. How would you rate their chances to push for a reform of Britain's electoral system now?

The party's long-time goal of introducing proportional representation into the British system and getting rid of the so-called first-past-the-post system must be seen skeptically with regard to forming a coalition with the Conservatives. The Conservatives would undermine their own position in British politics if they went along with proportional representation. If the Liberal Democrats were to form a government with Labour than I think Labour would probably agree to going ahead with some reform of proportional representation. Essentially, Labour would have to offer something to the Liberal Democrats to be able to form a coalition government with them and what they would have to offer would be the introduction of some form of proportional representation in Britain.

Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, said the Tories as the winner of the election have the right to try to build a government. How likely is a coalition between the Liberal Democrats who are viewed as pro-Europe and want election reform and the Conservatives who are considered anti-Europe and staunchly oppose election reform?

I think the hurdle is electoral reform, it is not Europe. I don't think the Conservatives are so anti-Europe, at least not the leadership of the Conservative Party, that it would be impossible for the Liberal Democrats to enter into a coalition over the question of Europe. The hurdle really is electoral reform. I don't think that the Conservatives will be able to agree to that at all, because they would undermine their own position in British politics in the future.

The Conservatives have done relatively well by becoming the strongest party in parliament under a system of proportional representation. There is no rush for them to go down that road now as they would weaken their own future. And the Liberal Democrats of course would strengthen their own future with the introduction of proportional representation. These positions are really at loggerheads and I can't see how both parties could agree on some sort of compromise.

So the Conservatives will have to look for other coalition partners than the Liberal Democrats. They will of course talk to the Liberal Democrats, but I would be very surprised if a deal could be achieved. But the Tories have other possibilities. They can talk to the DUP in Northern Ireland, which have around eight seats, they can also talk to some of the smaller nationalist parties who may not want to enter a formal coalition with the Conservatives, but may want to extend their informal support for a minority government led by the Conservatives and with the help of the Northern Irish DUP. So David Cameron is not entirely dependent on the Liberal Democrats. That would be the easier, the clearer option obviously, but I don't think that will come about.

The Greens won their first ever seat in British parliament. Is it a sign that Britain is becoming more ecologically-oriented like other European countries?

I would not give too much importance to that. Brighton is a fairly progressive place where a lot of young people live. So that they would return a green candidate is not that surprising. I think it is more surprising that nowhere else in the country there was a similar vote. So I think that was in a way lucky for the Green candidate, but I don't think that can be repeated in any other parts of the UK at the moment. While the UK has moved towards a more ecological position on the whole, I don't think this is already a general trend which will translate into votes and seats unfortunately.

Author: Michael Knigge
Editor: Sonia Phalnikar