Terror in Europe

Mounting concern about LeT, the Pakistan-based jihadi group, has prompted US officials to elevate the group to near al-Qaeda status. There are warnings that the group is targeting Europe and India too is bracing itself for a possible attack.

In recent testimony before the US Congress, Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair asserted that LeT is "becoming more of a direct threat and is placing Western targets in Europe in its sights." Pointing to the group's ability to raise funds, particularly in the Gulf, and its global logistics, support network and operations in Europe and Asia, Blair said confronting LeT was a high priority for Washington.

Blair made his remarks three months after the FBI arrested and charged Pakistani American David Headley with involvement in the 2008 Mumbai attacks and working with LeT on planned attacks in Denmark and India. Headley is suspected of having surveyed a German bakery in Pune, 180 kilometers (111 miles) south of Mumbai, in advance of last month's bombing of the site.

In Denmark, LeT is believed to be planning an attack on the newspaper that in 2005 published controversial cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad. The cartoons sparked widespread Muslim protests. Headley's interrogation further led to the recent arrest of several LeT operatives in Bangladesh who allegedly were preparing suicide car bombings of the US, British and Indian embassies in the capital Dhaka.

LeT has international influence

Concern that LeT may be setting its sights on Europe for its next operation are compounded by the group's history of involvement in international terrorism. LeT members have fought in Tajikistan's civil war and Bosnia Herzegovina and operate in Kashmir.

LeT leaders played a key role in the 1990s in convincing militant Islamic clerics to attribute to the conflict in Bosnia the status of an obligatory jihad - a move that opened the door for foreign fighters to join the Bosnian Muslim struggle against the Serbs and Croats. British and French officials say 2003 shoe bomber Richard Reid was funded by LeT as were the liquid bomb plotters who attempted to down trans-Atlantic flights in July 2006.

US and European officials believe that by targeting India or Indian targets in Europe and Asia, LeT hopes to disrupt fragile efforts by Pakistan and India to resolve their differences and work more closely together in combating militant Islamic groups.

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned on a visit in January to New Delhi that al Qaeda was using LeT to provoke renewed conflict between India and Pakistan in a bid to further destabilize Pakistan. Earlier, Gates told the US Senate that al Qaeda was providing LeT with targeting information to help the group plot attacks in India.

Indian officials are taking the threat seriously. In January, Indian authorities increased airport security after a captured LeT operative revealed plans to hijack an Indian airliner. Indian officials say sky marshals have been deployed on flights, particularly in the Indian subcontinent. Indian Home Ministry official U. K. Bansal told reporters in late January that LeT had acquired 50 paragliding kits in an unidentified European country for use in attacks on India.

LeT methods seen as innovative

Analysts, noting that LeT has proven to be innovative and creative, said paragliders can cover large distances despite not having an engine. LeT ferried its gunmen in a fishing boat to Mumbai in advance of the multiple attacks in the city. "The Mumbai attack was the group's first act of sea-borne terrorism. It would be natural for them to this time plan a spectacular attack from the air," B. Raman, a former Indian counter-terrorism official, told Deutsche Welle.

In recent talks with Pakistani officials, US and European officials have urged their Pakistani counterparts to crackdown on LeT. Pakistan has so far been reluctant to do so because its security services see the group as a useful tool in disputes with India.

US and European officials, however, believe that Pakistan may finally withdraw its tacit support for LeT in part as a result of last month's meeting in New Delhi between the Pakistani and Indian foreign ministers. They also expect Saudi Arabia to pressure Pakistan at the request of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who raised the issue with Saudi King Abdullah in late February.

Pakistan to put pressure on LeT

Stephen Tankel, author of a forthcoming book on LeT, says recent pressure is likely to persuade Pakistan at the very least to try to prevent LeT from attacking India. Tankel cautions, however, that "although Islamabad has traditionally wielded more leverage over LeT than over other jihadist groups, the degree of control it is able to exert today remains in question, and the group is clearly growing bolder."

A global crackdown would likely seek to disrupt LeT's longstanding financial links to the Pakistani Diaspora as well as Gulf financiers that date back to when the group first raised funds for resistance against the Soviets in Afghanistan.

It would also probably focus on thwarting LeT recruitment of Indian Muslims working in the Gulf, some of whom receive training in Pakistan before being infiltrated back into India while other serve as fundraisers and providers of logistical support in the Gulf as well as in Nepal and Bangladesh.

Analysts say Singh's visit to Saudi Arabia signals India's intent to shore up international resolve for a crackdown, particularly among Asian and Gulf states. India is uniquely positioned to secure that resolve, according to Walid Phares, an advisor to the US House of Representatives' Anti-Terrorism Caucus, because of its history as a co-founder of the non-aligned movement. "India can play a significant role in diplomatic and political realms to consolidate the international campaign," Phares said.

Author: James M. Dorsey
Editor: Rob Mudge