Bulgaria and North Macedonia: A new start?

Only 200 kilometers (124 miles) separate the capitals of North Macedonia and Bulgaria, but it takes almost four hours on bumpy roads, and a lot of patience, to get from Skopje to Sofia. Mired in a bitter dispute about history and identity for almost six decades, politicians on both sides of the border have never given any thought to travel alternatives. At present, there is neither a railroad nor a regular flight connection between the two Balkan neighbors.

But on his first visit to Skopje last week, Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov promised that what hadn't been achieved in 60 years would happen in the next 60 days. He expressed the hope that within two months, a commercial airline will connect the two capitals. It will probably take until the end of the decade for a rail link to be completed.

Petkov's North Macedonian counterpart, Dimitar Kovacevski, hopes that he won't have to wait that long for accession negotiations with the European Union to begin. These talks with the EU are a top priority in Skopje. Yet even though the EU gave its formal approval to begin talks with North Macedonia in March 2020, Bulgaria has been blocking the start of negotiations ever since.

The impasse stems primarily from the fact that the previous Bulgarian government led by Boyko Borisov demanded that North Macedonia accept that both the Macedonian nation and the Macedonian language are Bulgarian in origin and character. Skopje had rejected the ultimatum, saying that it goes against European principles and its right of self-determination.

More optimistic, conciliatory tone

But both newly elected prime ministers struck a very different tone last week. After a warm embrace outside the government building in Skopje and a long day of political talks, the two leaders said that they hoped to open a new chapter in their countries' strained relations. "I'm very optimistic about the new dynamics [in relations] and can assure you that results will be visible every week," said Bulgaria's Petkov during a joint press conference with Kovacevski, who was sworn in as North Macedonia's prime minister on January 17.

Regarding a longstanding conflict around the country's name with Greece, Kovacevski's predecessor Zoran Zaev managed to solve the decades-old dispute by changing the country's name from "Macedonia" to "North Macedonia." However, he did not succeed in reaching such a compromise with Bulgaria.

Respect and closer cooperation

Now, the two leaders are hoping for a fresh start. "We have promised each other that we will use new energy to improve our relations with respect," said Kovacevski.

Instead of focusing exclusively on unresolved historical disputes, both governments agreed to have a joint meeting in Sofia and form working groups for closer cooperation on economic issues, trade, education, European integration, culture and history.

The government in Skopje made a first step toward compromise hours before Petkov's visit by informing the United Nations that the name "North Macedonia" and its lengthier version "Republic of North Macedonia" refer only to the country and not to the wider geographical region.

Until now, Sofia had claimed that the shorter name implied territorial aspirations toward Bulgaria, specifically its region of Pirin Macedonia.

Compromise within reach?

"Yes, there is hope, because we have finally heard the magic word 'compromise,'" says Ivaylo Ditchev, a political analyst and professor of cultural anthropology at the University of Sofia in Bulgaria.

Macedonian political analyst Saso Ordanoski predicts that in coming months, further compromise will open the door for Skopje to begin the EU accession process while continuing bilateral talks with Sofia in the coming years. He attributes this shift to "growing international pressure" on Sofia.

Since Bulgaria first vetoed North Macedonia's path towards EU membership in 2019, various diplomats from both the US and EU Member States have criticized the country's stance.

During a visit to Albania on January 18, Germany's junior minister for Europe, Anna Lührmann, concluded that there have been "positive signs" from Bulgaria. She also repeated Berlin's official position that EU accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania must begin as soon as possible.

No easy path ahead

Sofia also insists that North Macedonia's ethnic Bulgarian minority must be constitutionally recognized — just like other minorities in the country.

Already under intense pressure not to compromise from the right-wing opposition party and a smaller pro-Russian leftist movement, the government in Skopje currently lacks the necessary two-thirds majority in the parliament to fulfill that Bulgarian request.

Opposition to Prime Minister Petkov's political push for a deal with North Macedonia is present in Bulgaria, as well. Petkov faces opposition not only from at least two of the four political parties in his coalition government, but also from President Rumen Radev.

The stability of the new government could be endangered if Petkov softens Bulgaria's stance.

Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan