Russia reportedly meddling in Moldova referendum

Voters in Moldova are heading to the polls on Sunday. Not only are voters in the small nation, sandwiched between EU member Romania and war-torn Ukraine, choosing their next president, but they will also be asked about the future they want.

In a historic referendum involving 228 polling stations across 37 counties, voters will decide whether to rewrite the constitution to enshrine joining the European Union as a strategic objective.

Moldova, which has a resident population of around 2.6 million plus a sizeable expatriate community, already entered into official negotiations to join the 27-member bloc in June. However, the pro-West government of President Maia Sandu wants to ensure future leaders don't backtrack on the progress toward EU accession.

EU membership would transform Moldova from a "vulnerable state with fragile democracy" to a "strong, modern, resilient and European state capable of taking care of its citizens," Sandu said when she announced the referendum last December. She argued that it was time for Moldovans to choose their desired path and state it clearly.

The landlocked country is one of the post-Soviet states in Eastern Europe whose citizens are caught between a desire to join the EU and strong prevailing ties to Russia.

Under Sandu's leadership, Moldova's government has set a 2030 EU accession timeline. That would be exceptionally quick and difficult to achieve given the rigorous vetting and reform process to which candidate countries must submit.

The concrete question on the ballot is: "Do you support the amendment of the Constitution for Moldova's accession to the European Union?" The referendum will pass if a majority vote "yes" and the turnout is 33% or higher.

Enshrining an EU accession desire into the constitution would affirm Sandu's, which has become more pressing for the Moldovan president due to the war in Ukraine. However, a successful referendum would also inflame tensions with Transnistria, the pro-Russian region supported by the Kremlin that broke away in 1990 and has remained in a stand-off ever since with the government in Chisinau, Moldova's capital.

Russia criticized for meddling attempts

Moldovan authorities have accused Russia and Russian-allied figures of trying to disrupt Sunday's vote with a variety of nefarious tactics. Earlier this month, police officers said 130,000 Moldovans had been bribed with a total of $15 million to vote against enshrining EU ambitions.

On Thursday, police said it uncovered a scheme involving people being regularly sent to Russia for training in how to take part in protests and civil unrest in Moldova, the Reuters news agency reported.

Moscow has denied all allegations of interference in Moldova's electoral process. "We categorically reject these accusations," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Monday in comments picked up by TASS, a Russian state news agency. "We do not interfere in other countries' internal affairs."

As far back as June, Chisinau's Western allies had sounded the alarm about interference risks in the election. In a joint statement, the US, Britain and Canada raised the "Kremlin's use of criminal groups to finance political activities and undermine Moldova's democratic institutions."

This week, the EU slapped sanctions on the governor of the autonomous territory Gagauzia, Evghenia Gutul, and several other local officials for promoting separatism. The EU also listed the organization Evrazia, which the bloc described in a press release as "a Russia-based non-governmental association whose goal is to promote Russia's interests abroad, including in Moldova."

"Moldova faces massive direct attempts from Russia to destabilize the country, as well as challenges arising from Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine," Josep Borrell, the EU's top diplomat, warned on Monday.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Moldova last week, urging its people to vote in the upcoming referendum and pledging $2 billion of economic support.

A tight vote that could leave Moldova stranded

According to recent presidential polls, Sandu will likely secure a second term. However, polling data suggests the referendum result could be much closer.

One poll from late 2022 found that 63% of Moldovans wanted to join the EU, compared to 33% who were against it. However, only 53% of respondents in a survey published this July said they planned to vote "yes" in the referendum to enshrine joining the bloc constitutionally. Both surveys excluded Transnistria.

Anastasia Pociumban of the German Council on Foreign Relations believes the referendum will likely pass by a narrow margin but that Russian proxies could seek to delegitimize the results.

"A referendum failure could have serious policy implications, potentially weakening Moldova's support from its EU partners and leaving the country in a precarious position between the EU and Russia," she told DW.

"Pro-Russian parties will likely seize on a failed referendum to argue that Moldova is not welcomed by the EU, further fueling debates about the country's geopolitical alignment."

She explained that of the 15 political parties involved in the referendum, only two have campaigned against the pro-EU amendment. One is linked to Ilan Shor, an exile sanctioned by the US and the EU convicted of stealing $1 billion in bank assets. Moldovan police accuse him of being behind attempts to subvert the elections.

Transparency International, an advocacy group, has consistently ranked Moldova as one of the most corrupt countries in Europe. It is also one of the poorest in terms of GDP per capita. The country's population has nosedived heavily since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Edited by: Davis VanOpdorp