New parliament

The 17th legislative period of Germany's lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, convened for the first time at 11 a.m. on Tuesday, and a lot is expected from the new government.

In last month's general election, Chancellor Angela Merkel got the coalition partners and the center-right mandate she had wanted four years ago. Now, unencumbered by the egalitarian conscience of the Social Democrats (SPD), the path is clear for a happy partnership of social conservatism, represented by her Christian Democrat Union (CDU), and free-market fiscal dynamism, in the form of the liberal Free Democrats (FDP).

But unfortunately for Merkel, and particularly the FDP, desperate to deliver on tax-cut promises, the landscape is completely different now than it was in 2005. Massive industry bail-outs necessitated by the global financial crisis have left Germany with a trillion-euro deficit that will easily exceed the European Union's rules and could breach recently-introduced constitutional restraints, even without any further burdens.

Assertive FDP

The Free Democrats were easily the winners of the election. Around 1.6 million voters defected to their slick new centrist politics from Germany's two mainstream parties, the CDU and SPD. In parliament, the party significantly closed the gap on the Social Democrats. The FDP boosted its number of parliamentarians from 61, in the last Bundestag, to 93, while SPD representation collapsed from 221 to 146.

This spectacular success could be taken as evidence that they are close to their highest ambition - to take over the political center and re-position themselves not just as the party of the young high-earner, but as one that appeals to a broader segment of the population.

The election was certainly a foothold. The FDP campaign called for reform in practically every sphere of life - from nuclear disarmament to scrapping daylight savings time - rhetorically, it was an Obama-esque call for an entirely new mind-set. In the meantime, their campaign manifesto offered more money to just about everyone.

By adopting family-oriented, popular policies, such as increasing the limit of personal wealth the unemployed can have before their benefits are reduced, they won over many of the nation's poorest, even though they were most likely to be worse off.

On the back of this popularity, the newly confident FDP was able to punch above its weight in its coalition negotiations, and will have a much bigger influence on the CDU in the Bundestag. But the reality of government, and particularly the desperate reality of the economy, could well clip their wings, and force compromises that alienate their newly won voters.

Faced with the FDP's ebullience, the CDU could be forgiven for feeling like a junior partner in the coalition. After registering the CDU's worst election result since 1949, Merkel is only too aware that she rode into her second term on the back of the Free Democrats' success. But in the Bundestag, the CDU won enough directly elected candidates to actually increase their representation by 17 to 239. As the FDP's election euphoria wears off, this parliamentary power can be expected to assert itself, and the CDU's natural caution, heightened by the recession, is likely to rein in its partners' zeal for reform.

Soul-searching SPD

While the parties in the center-right coalition have found themselves a congenial partnership, the left side of the chamber is stricken with dissent. Even if they had an electoral mandate, it is doubtful whether a coalition of the SPD and the Left party could ever come about, while the Greens have already begun flirting with a lurch to the right.

The SPD in particular is in one of the deepest crises of its 146-year history. It has lost 10.2 million voters over the last 10 years, halving its popular vote. Worryingly fundamental questions are being asked about whether a center-left social democratic agenda is still relevant in a post-industrial global free market economy. As in other western European countries, the center-left's attempt to modernize in line with globalization has led to an ugly rift with its core supporters, and party membership has dwindled.

The problem for the SPD is not only that the new, successful Left party has ruthlessly siphoned off these disaffected voters, but that the emotional enmity between the SPD and the Left party has, at least for now, poisoned the possibility of a left-wing alliance.

This is only partly down to the personal bile that still exists between the SPD and its defector and nemesis Oskar Lafontaine, leader of the Left. The increasingly populist Left party is in danger of tempting the SPD onto the rocks of increasingly radical policies, in an attempt to pursue their former voters.

For prominent left-wing SPD figures like Berlin mayor Klaus Woworeit and Andrea Nahles, this is the next logical step for the party, but for venerable party veterans like Otto Schily and moderates like the new party chairman Sigmar Gabriel, abandoning the political center for the CDU and FDP would be suicidal. A bond born of the party's dire position has sprung up between the opposing elements of the party, but it will still be a difficult course to navigate.

Split Left

The Left party itself is equally conflicted, despite a triumphant election that yielded 76 Bundestag seats, 23 more than in the last parliament. But this will be the extent of their influence in national politics. Despite gains in every single German state, the Left have failed to join any new state government, except for under-populated Brandenburg. This puts its long-term hope of entering a national government coalition well beyond its reach. The lack of representation on a state level means they are also without significant numbers in the Bundesrat, the upper house of parliament.

Internally, the resignation of Lafontaine from his post as leader of the parliamentary faction left an awkward vacuum at the center of the party. This is being fought over by the party's two wings: the moderates, mainly based in the former East Germany, where the Left has a much broader base of support that covers multiple interests, and the more radical anti-capitalists in the former West. Lafontaine's partial withdrawal, apparently meant to initiate a gradual generational shift, has left the party facing an internal power struggle.

The smallest parliamentary faction in the new parliament belongs to the Green party, with 68 seats. But it too could count the election a success, having gained 17 representatives. For the Greens the dilemma of the next four years lies in whether to acknowledge that they share their core demographic - affluent middle classes - with the FDP, and to try to steal some of their voters.

Traditionally a party that allied itself with the SPD, four years in opposition has left the Greens dissatisfied with the stagnant politics of the old grand coalition, and eager to project a young, FDP-like image. A future coalition with the FDP and the CDU, as was recently sealed in the state of Saarland, seems to be the Greens best hope of power in the mid-term. But boos rang out at last weekend's Green party conference when party leaders defended the Saarland alliance. As with the SPD, the grassroots react against a rightward shift.

Author: Ben Knight
Editor: Chuck Penfold