Last-Ditch Effort

The closed-door negotiations in the quiet spa town Baden near Vienna, hosted by the Kosovo Troika -- Russia, the United States and the European Union -- are a final attempt to clinch a deal ahead of a Dec. 10 deadline.

The chances of reaching any sort of compromise in the three-day talks remain extremely unlikely. Comparisons with other Balkans peace conferences, like Dayton, Ohio in 1995 or Rambouillet, France in 1999, are hinting at a readiness for compromise that is completely absent from both parties' positions.

The Troika-mediated talks were launched in August when the UN Security Council failed to endorse a model for internationally monitored independence proposed by UN special envoy Martti Athisaari after Russian veto threats.

After several inconclusive rounds of talks Serbia and Kosovo's ethnic Albanians are nowhere near a compromise, despite the Troika promise to vigorously pursue a deal. The last-ditch effort at Hotel Schloss Weikersdorf comes before the Troika reports back to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Dec. 10.

Opposing views

Kosovo's ethnic Albanians -- who constitute more than 90 percent of the population -- will settle for nothing short of independence, while Serbia is only willing to go as far as granting far-reaching autonomy to the province.

Backed by Moscow, Serbia suggested solutions similar to autonomy constructs for Hong Kong or the Aland Islands in Finland. Russia and Serbia also called for extending the UN deadline, insisting that talks should continue until a compromise is found.

Serbia's Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, who is expected to lead the Belgrade delegation together with President Boris Tadic, has become increasingly belligerent, accusing the West of planning to set up a "NATO state" in the Balkans after amputating Kosovo from Serbia.

Kosovo had been the scene of a brutal, indiscriminate crackdown by Serbian forces in response to a separatist insurgency in 1998-99. NATO intervention ended the campaign, widely described in the West as ethnic cleansing, leaving Kosovo under UN administration.

Belgrade, which insists its territorial rights in Kosovo are inviolable, has dismissed plans for contractual ties between the two entities. Serbian politicians promised that Belgrade would "never" recognize an independent Kosovo and threatened an economic and political blockade in case of a unilateral declaration.

Unilateral moves?

Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leaders said they planned to unilaterally declare independence after Dec. 10, irrespective of the post-Baden situation, but backpedaled after being warned not to take hasty steps.

Kosovo's likely new prime minister, Hashim Thaci, whose Democratic Party won the Nov. 17 general elections, said he expected independence by the end of the year, but promised to coordinate his steps with Brussels and Washington.

"For Kosovo there's only one solution -- it will become independent," the ex-rebel commander Thaci said, dismissing suggestions of any "intermediate status" for Kosovo's 2 million Albanians in a post-Baden setting.

With Kosovo being backed by Washington and Belgrade by Moscow, consensus within the EU remains elusive. A majority of the union's 27 member states favors independence for Kosovo, but concerns exist that the province's example could encourage secessionists elsewhere.

At the end of the previous round of talks in Brussels on Nov. 20, the Troika said it would explore all possibilities. But even Troika chief Wolfgang Ischinger admitted agreement was unlikely, barring a last minute about-face by one of the two parties.