Will Kyrgyzstan crisis have an impact on neighboring states?

In the violent clashes in Bishkek that left at least 75 people dead this week, a five-storey Chinese shopping mall was also looted and burnt down. The estimated losses are of up to four billion US dollars (almost three billion euros).

Although no Chinese national was hurt, Beijing immediately issued a statement expressing "deep concern" about the political situation in Kyrgyzstan, a key market for Chinese goods.

Patrick Dombrowsky, the director of the European Center for Research on Central Asia in Paris, explained that China "was very attentive about what was going to happen in Kyrgyzstan".

"First of all, because it is a country, which has a common border with China and secondly because it is an Islamic country. By which I mean Bejing fears the possibility that the Islamic movements in Xinjiang could grow as a result of the situation in Kyrgyzstan."

Some estimated 50,000 Uighurs currently live in the central Asian country. They charge the Chinese authorities with political suppression in the western region of Xinjiang, while Beijing accuses them and other Uighurs living outside China of being "separatists".

Controversial US airbase

Another concern about the politicial crisis in Bishkek has been the controversial US airbase in Manas, some 35 kilometers away from the Kyrgyz capital.

The base, which has fuelled some tension between Russia and the US, has been used to relay supplies to NATO troops in Afghanistan. It became even more significant after a US base in Uzbekistan was shut down in 2005.

Omurbek Tekebayev, who is in charge of constitutional matters in Kyrgyzstan's new interim government, recently told the international media that the base's future was shortlived. He also stated that Russia had played a role in the ousting of President Bakiyev. But Moscow has denied these allegations.

New leader is a known quantity for the West

Annette Bohr, an expert at the London based think tank Chatham House, thinks there would have been little reason for Russia to fuel the present crisis in Kyrgyzstan. Nor does she think the country's new leader, former Foreign Minister, Roza Otunbayeva is likely to shut down the US base in Manas.

"Otunbayeva is a very Westernized figure," she explained. "She is a known quantity for us, someone we know quite well – she's acted as foreign minister on three occasions and has served as ambassador in London and in Washington. She speaks five or six languages. She has a reputation of being a very clean and experienced politician. It is very unlikely that she would suspend the current agrement with the US."

Otunbayeva has already assured Washington that the base will remain open despite the change in leadership. However, some observers think she might want to renegotiate the contract and ask for more money from the US in return.

It is widely thought that if the base were to be closed down, it would be a huge setback for the Western-led mission in Afghanistan, especially with regard to the surge in troops that is expected later this year.

Author: Disha Uppal
Editor: Anne Thomas