German voters have high hopes for Kamala Harris

German media have reported on the shift in the political mood in the US over the past two weeks since President Joe Biden bowed out of the race. The new candidate, Kamala Harris, is seen to be scoring points against the Republican challenger, former President Donald Trump.

Respondents to Germany's monthly Deutschlandtrend survey by pollster infratest dimap have a clear preference: of the 1,300 eligible voters surveyed between August 5 and 7, a whopping 77% said they believe Vice President Kamala Harris is more suitable for the presidency, while only 10% favor Donald Trump.

In July, when Biden was still the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, only 28% said they were convinced that Biden would serve another four years. At the time, 59% considered neither Trump nor Biden to be suitable.

Opposition to Israel's military actions

Meanwhile, as the conflict in the Middle East threatens to escalate, political observers in Germany fear an expansion of the Gaza war could to lead to a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel.

This fear has been triggered by the killing of the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, during a visit to Iran last week — an act for which many believe Israel is responsible. Hamas is classified as a terrorist group by Germany, the EU, the US and other countries. 

A clear majority of respondents to the Deutschlandtrend survey said they believe the Israeli government has gone too far with its reaction to the October 7 terrorist attacks by Hamas. In August, 57% of respondents agreed with this statement, a 7% increase on July.

Only 21% considered Israel's actions in the war to be appropriate. A large majority is also against supporting the Israeli military, should it be attacked by Iran.

Clear majority do not want far-right AfD in government

Turning to domestic matters, upcoming elections in three of Germany's eastern states are preoccupying voters across the country amid the rise of the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD).

State parliaments will be elected in Saxony and Thuringia on September 1, followed by Brandenburg on September 22. And in all three states, the AfD is polling at between 24% and 31%. That's although sections of the party have been classified as far-right extremist by Germany's domestic intelligence service.

So how do voters feel about the AfD possibly joining a coalition government?

In the eastern German states, 33% think this is a good idea, but only 25% of respondents nationwide shared that view. However, even in the eastern states, 60% of respondents do not favor the idea of including the AfD in a regional government.

Union as strong as all three government partners

Germany's center-left government in Berlin continues to be unpopular with voters. As the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) continue to haggle over the 2025 budget, voters are frustrated with the slow pace of digitalization, the perceived polarization in society and inflation.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD currently has only 15% support in the polls — down from over 24% in the last general election in 2021. The Greens are down 2% to 12% and the FDP stands at 5%, which is the threshold for representation in parliament. Three years ago it garnered 11.5% of the national vote.

The conservative bloc of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU), which has led the (West) German governments for most of the past seven decades, has once again made slight gains, with the CDU reaching 32% in the polls. This is as much support as all three parties in government combined.

Forty-two percent of those polled said they are dissatisfied with the current government's work, and 37% said they are not satisfied at all. Only 20% of respondents think the government is good or very good.

With 13 months to go to the next general election in Germany, the coalition government looks like it's facing an uphill battle to win back a majority.

This article was originally written in German.

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