Berlusconi barometer

Ever since media magnate Silvio Berlusconi stepped onto the Italian political scene almost 16 years ago, experts have been predicting his imminent demise. The two-day regional elections, which started on Sunday, March 28, are no different.

The leader is down in the polls and the votes garnered by his People's Freedom Party will partly be viewed as reflecting confidence – or lack thereof – in the prime minister.

But Berlusconi's power has long hinged on forming pacts with other parties. Myrta Merlino, who hosts a financial program on television called the Domino Effect, said the elections will also be pivotal for the far-right Northern League party, known as the Lega in Italian.

"For the first time, two major regions are likely to go to the Lega," Merlino said. "And if they win, the weight of the Lega in the central government will be very, very big. The northern region will ask to have more money for the efficient regions and less for the south. And so also for the unity of the country, these elections are important."

Resentment against south

The Northern League is fiscally conservative, and has long expressed resentment toward southern Italy's dependency on government jobs to keep its population employed. The Lega also has the sympathy of Berlusconi's most powerful minister - Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti.

The elections are also seen as a test for the left. Years of infighting, ineffective leadership and a series of its own scandals have kept Italians from considering the center-left Democratic Party as a real option.

Antonio Polito, editor of Il Riformista magazine and a former senator in the southern region of Campania, said the regional elections are a chance for the Italian left to get the new start it's looking for.

"At the moment, the opposition is unelectable," Polito said. "If we had general elections now, the center-left would lose. So the regional elections are an important step to rebuild credibility in the country."

Changes in perception

And if the left does gain what it's seeking - more votes and a shift in perception that they could lead Italy - it doesn't necessarily spell the end of Berlusconi.

Milano Finanza magazine editor Pierluigi Magnaschi said it's unlikely Berlusconi will be going anywhere before the end of his term as prime minister.

"I think the end of Berlusconi is not near," said Magnaschi. "He will finish in three years. After that, the political games are open."

Author: Megan Williams/svs
Editor: Toma Tasovac