Afghanistan's future

Dr. Gulshan Sachdeva is an expert on South Asian and European themes at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.

Deutsche Welle: What was the aim of these talks?

Gulshan Sachdeva: The conference was to discuss what is going to happen after 2014. Especially in the sense of whether one could give more responsibility to regional countries, both in economic affairs as well as security issues. After 2014, Afghanistan is going to face two major challenges: One is of course security. If the number of foreign forces declines, the security situation will become difficult. Who will be able to handle that situation? Can regional countries provide training and troops on the ground? The second challenge is that the interest of western powers will decline in Afghanistan. That is, the amount of money which was available in the last years may not be available in the next ten years. So the question is, what kind of an economic mechanism can be built so that Afghanistan can sustain itself?

Is there any strategic importance in selecting Turkey as the venue for these talks?

Turkey, in a sense, is an extended neighbor of Afghanistan. It is also trying to be a role model for Muslim countries. It is a moderate modernizing country and has kept some of its older traditions. They have also had a close relationship with Pakistan and any kind of regional initiative is not going to be successful unless Pakistan is on board, both for security as well as for economic reasons.

Turkey is encouraging Pakistani and Afghan leaders to develop a consensus. What do you foresee for the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan?

The Pakistani media didn't seem to be expecting too much from these talks. The sentiment is that they don't need any more mechanisms to deal with security because there already are so many. I don't think there are many changes in Pakistan’s attitude, but it also depends on others, the international community, the Western powers, the neighbors, if they are able to convince Pakistan that it has to cooperate in economic and security matters. This is possible, but it won’t be today or tomorrow. It is a long-term process.

What kind of role did the US play?

The US is definitely trying to hand out some responsibility to regional countries, if they are willing to take it. In that context, India may start providing training to the Afghan security forces. I think one major agenda of the American administration is that if you have the new silk route strategy initiative, then all the regional countries will be on board. Later on, some projects can be identified, financing can be committed. Of course, this will take a long time, but once the direction is clear, there is a possibility that by the time international financing is out of Afghanistan, there will be an idea of how it can sustain itself.

What exactly is this new silk route strategy?

The silk route is basically an international network of trade, commerce and energy corridors linking Central and South Asia and the central part of it is Afghanistan. This is an economic initiative and in principle, no one will have an objection to it. The only question is how the plans will materialize because there are problems between Pakistan and Afghanistan and between Pakistan and India. But those can be sorted out at least in the economic field and in the long run, maybe some security aspects can be built in.

What kind of a role could one expect China to play?

In the beginning, China was lukewarm; they haven’t played a big role in reconstruction. But you have these major investments in the copper mines for which they have committed three billion US dollars in Afghanistan. China will also have to step up security for its own assets within Afghanistan. My feeling is that in the next five to ten years, China will have a much bigger role within Afghanistan as compared to what they have had so far.

Interview: Manasi Gopalakrishnan
Editor: Sarah Berning