Israel-Hamas war: Netanyahu's legacy hangs in the balance

For better or worse, there are very few people whose name will be remembered more in the context of the 2024 war between Israel and Hamas than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The October 7 terror attack by Hamas, designated a terror group by the US, Israel the EU and others, claimed the lives of some 1,200 Israelis and resulted in more than 200 hostages being taken by the group.The ensuing war has had a huge impact on the lives of people in the region for almost a year. Meanwhile, the Health Ministry run by Hamas in Gaza says more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed so far.

Polls show support of Netanyahu still strong

Generally, Israelis' views on Netanyahu have been changing over the course of the conflict.

According to an August opinion poll by Israeli daily Maariv, Netanyahu's Likud party would receive 22 mandates should the elections be held now, making it Israel's biggest party, overtaking Benny Gantz's State Camp party.

Moreover, for the first time since October 7, more people think Netanyahu is a better fit for the prime minister role than Gantz (42% vs. 40%). Gantz, a former army chief who enjoys support among liberal Israelis, was part of Netanyahu's war cabinet before leaving in June due to worries over the Israeli PM's decisions during the war.

Just a few months ago, polls painted a rather different picture, with Netanyahu trailing on both counts.

 Netanyahu at odds with hostages' families

One of the biggest issues Netanyahu has been facing is the conflict with most of the Israeli hostages' families. One of the most outspoken critics of the Israeli PM in recent months is Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan has been held hostage by Hamas in Gaza for the past 10 months. 

Zangauker, a single mom, said she used to support Netanyahu before the war. His handling of the negotiations for the hostages' release has convinced her otherwise due to what many in Israeli believe are Netanyahu's attempts to prevent a deal. 

"Netanyahu is the most abandoning, cruel and lying prime minister in the State of Israel's history," she was quoted as saying by the Israeli news outlet Ynet. "Do you really think both the public and the hostages' families are stupid?"

Senior members of the Israeli negotiations team reportedly echoed a similar sentiment in discussions with Netanyahu, who, according to security sources quoted by TV station N12, "doesn't want a deal at this time… He has given up on the hostages."

This stands in stark contrast to the Israeli public's position on striking a deal with Hamas and bringing the hostages home. A July poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 56% of Israelis believe the country should agree to end the war and fully withdraw its army from the Gaza Strip in return for bringing the Israeli hostages back home. 29.5% said they are only willing to accept a temporary cessation in the war as part of a hostages' deal. 

The issue of Bibism

In part, the support for Netanyahu has its roots in a term which has become an integral part of the Israeli political discourse: Bibism.

Bibism, named after Netanyahu's nickname Bibi, is the political view which believes in supporting the Israeli PM's every decision, regardless of whether it fits a certain agenda or political direction.

The most prominent expression of Bibism is reflected in the coverage of the commercial broadcaster Channel 14, which is seen as politically biased towards Netanyahu, where prominent Netanyahu supporters favorably analyze the prime minister's decisions. 

Decision on October 7 inquiry stalls

That's not to say Israelis do not think Netanyahu has some questions to answer.

The establishment of an independent inquiry committee which will investigate the failings which lead to the October 7 attack is backed by most Israelis.

While 46% of the public believe such an inquiry should be established right away, most Likud voters (59%) support Netanyahu's stance, which argues the inquiry should be established once the war is over.

Netanyahu, for his part, has stalled on the decision regarding the exact nature of the inquiry. He's leaning toward establishing a government-run inquiry rather than an independent one, which is likely to be more critical of Netanyahu.

Netanyahu is also facing challenges from within his own government. When it comes to the negotiations with Hamas over a hostage deal, Defense Minister Yoav Galant has often backed the view held by Israel's security authorities that such a deal should be made as soon as possible. 

Israel's international status

Come November, the eyes of the world will be focused on the elections in the US and their outcome. In Israel, US' closest ally in the Middle East, the public will be interested to see who becomes the next president, and what their approach is when it comes to Israel and its conflict with the Palestinians.

During Netanyahu's recent visit to the United States, he met both Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump. 

Both candidates voiced their support for a deal which would bring the Israeli hostages home and end the war.

Israel's relations with the European Union are also far from perfect. Countries like Spain and Ireland have been pushing for more sanctions against Israel or its officials due to its operation in Gaza, but so far, pro-Israeli EU members such as Germany, Czechia and Hungary have blocked such measures.

The EU's foreign policy head Josep Borrell said recently the bloc needs to consider sanctions against Israeli far-right ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir after the two had called for civilian aid and petrol deliveries to Gaza to be stopped.

International legal proceedings may also prove decisive in shaping Netanyahu's legacy abroad. In May, the International Criminal Court filed an application for arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his defense minister Yoav Gallant on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the war. The International Court of Justice is also hearing a case brought by South Africa in December 2023 that accuses Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. Israel and Netanyahu have rejected these accusations.

With Israel's international status worsening the longer the war continues, and with the conflicts within Israeli society becoming ever more present, it remains to be seen whether Netanyahu — Israel's longest-serving prime minister — will opt for an end to the war.

He knows all too well: His legacy as Israel's leader depends on its outcome. 

Edited by: Rob Mudge; Carla Bleiker