Israel-Hamas cease-fire: Why is there no deal?

It's been a familiar refrain over a grueling 10 months of conflict in Gaza: Officials announce that a cease-fire deal — which would ensure the end of the fighting, the safety of Palestinian civilians, and the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza — is close. But then, days or just hours later, others state that cease-fire talks have hit a stumbling block and any potential deal is off again.

Along with that come accusations from both the Israeli government and the militant Hamas group that each is obstructing a deal by making unreasonable demands and last-minute changes. In fact, a basic framework for a cease-fire already exists that both Israel and Hamas appear to — mostly — agree with.

The current conflict began on October 7 when an attack on Israel by the Gaza-based militant group Hamas resulted in the deaths of around 1,200 Israelis. More than 200 were taken hostage. In the months since, Israel's retaliatory military campaign in Gaza has killed almost 40,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, and driven most of the enclave's 2.3 million people from their homes. 

The latest round of cease-fire negotiations began in May and since then, negotiators from a number of countries, including the US, Qatar and Egypt, have been trying to convince Israel and Hamas to agree on how a deal should work.  

The framework

On May 31, US President Joe Biden outlined a framework for a cease-fire agreement in some detail. Biden said it was based on an Israeli proposal. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Biden's outline was a "non-starter," Israeli negotiators have continued to work with it.

Biden's deal was almost identical to a cease-fire proposal Hamas agreed to, as a basis for negotiations, in early May.

In June, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2735, which also follows the outlines of the framework Biden announced, albeit in far less detailed terms.

The main premise is that a cease-fire would be implemented in three stages, with the first two each lasting around six weeks, and the final phase involving years of reconstruction. 

Stage 1: In the first six weeks of a cease-fire, there would be a "temporary cessation" of military operations by both Israel and Hamas. Israeli troops would withdraw in stages, and displaced Palestinians would be able to return home.

Humanitarian aid would be allowed to enter Gaza, and the first batch of Israeli hostages would be exchanged. Israeli hostages would include females (including soldiers), children, elderly and sick people. They would be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, mostly women, children, elderly or sick people.

Stage 2: Negotiations about the second phase of the cease-fire would begin during the first phase. Supplies to house and feed the around 2 million Palestinains who have been displaced would continue, and plans for rebuilding Gaza's destroyed infrastructure would begin. Israeli restrictions on the Rafah crossing, the border between Egypt and Gaza, would be loosened.

During the second phase, the rest of the Israeli hostages — male civilians and soldiers — would be exchanged. But before that can happen, the three-stage plan states there should be "a return to sustainable calm (a permanent cessation of military and hostile operations)."

Stage 3: This would involve the general reconstruction of Gaza over the course of several years. Bodies of the dead from both sides would be returned.

There are also other aspects to a cease-fire deal meant to sway Israel or Hamas. For example, according to US newspaper The Washington Post, there have been discussions about the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah pulling back from the Israeli-Lebanese border, as well as the potential for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel. There are also reports that Qatar — the Gulf state where the political wing of Hamas is headquartered — has pressured the group by threatening to expel it.

But there are still certain parts of the basic framework the two sides cannot agree upon. Some are well known, others less publicized. For example, negotiators have spoken about varying timelines and disagreements over hostage names and numbers.  

Cease-fire sticking points

A permanent end to fighting: While a temporary cease-fire during stage one seemed to be something everybody could agree on, what happens after that has been subject to intense negotiations.

Hamas wants a guarantee that there will be a permanent end to hostilities after it hands over hostages. But the Israeli government says it doesn't want to stop fighting until it achieves "total victory" over Hamas.

In early July, Hamas had said it would accept a cease-fire deal without an upfront, written Israeli guarantee to end fighting. 

Washington Post foreign affairs columnist David Ignatius explained the reason for Hamas' acquiescence: A line in June's UN Security Council resolution says: "If the negotiations take longer than six weeks for phase one, the ceasefire will still continue as long as negotiations continue." That means fighting should stop as long as phase one talks are ongoing, Ignatius noted.

That language "allows both Israel to feel comfortable enough that it has the ability to resume fighting if Hamas ceases to negotiate in good faith, and Hamas to feel comfortable enough that the mediators will prevent Israel from resuming the war," the Times of Israel explained further.

But shortly afterwards, Netanyahu announced further "non-negotiable" conditions, one of which was that Israel must be able to keep fighting. His comments angered international negotiators and Israeli politicians, all of whom argued his statements endangered a deal just as talks were about to resume. "Israel seems concerned that Hamas would drag on endlessly with fruitless negotiations," US news agency Associated Press suggested. 

This week, the New York Times sighted unpublished documents that showed that, even while there was doubt about Hamas' willingness to compromise, Israel had been the "less flexible" partner in recent cease-fire talks. Netanyahu's office denies this. The Israeli Prime Minister's critics say he is dragging out the war for his own political survival. Far-right coalition partners supporting his government say they won't accept any cease-fire.

In early August, Ismail Haniyeh, one of Hamas' chief negotiators for a cease-fire deal, was killed in Tehran, most likely by an Israeli bomb

Who will be in charge in Gaza? Israel is determined that Hamas shouldn't be in charge in Gaza after fighting ends. Since November Hamas has insisted it should be, and also that it doesn't want its political rival, the Palestinian Authority (PA) taking over. Recent reports now say Israel and Hamas have agreed to a PA-backed force, overseen by other countries, including Arab nations, taking temporary control of Gaza.

Location of Israeli troops: Hamas wants Israel to withdraw completely. Israel wants to keep troops stationed at checkpoints in the middle of the Gaza Strip so soldiers can screen for Palestinians with weapons. There's been some back-and-forth about this, with Israel apparently agreeing to withdraw in May. However in a July letter to mediators in Rome, sent by the Israeli Prime Minister's office and seen by the New York Times, Israel seemed to renege on this.

Another contentious area is the Rafah crossing on the Egypt-Gaza border, which the Egyptian military used to control. Israel says it should be allowed to maintain control of this area, in order to prevent weapons from being smuggled in to Hamas.

cis (AP, Reuters)
Edited by: Andreas Illmer