Looming disaster

For centuries, the stories of the lost cities of Atlantis and the lesser-known Rungholt – a city on an island in the North Sea, swept beneath the waves in 1362 – have been two of the western world's favorite legends. But those chilling stories are now becoming reality as rising sea levels threaten to submerge islands around the world.

At particular risk are low-lying islands – flat islands with hardly any elevation. The Maldives, southwest of Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean, are a case in point. The highest spot on the nearly 2,000 small islands that make up the Maldives lies just 2.4 meters above sea level. And if the waters rise, as several reports predict, many islands would be rendered uninhabitable.

"The Fiji Islands [in the South Pacific] have a highland where inhabitants can retreat to if things become tight," Ali Rilwan, co-founder of the Maldivian non-governmental organization Bluepeace said. "We Maldivians, on the other hand, have to come up with something else."

Forecasts by the United Nations and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) give the Maldives about a 100 years before they sink into the Indian Ocean.

Long-term solutions don't come cheap

The growing threat has prompted varied reactions from the affected countries. Many residents of the island of Tuvalu in the Pacific have already immigrated to New Zealand, while the Maldives has erected a three-meter-high wall around its capital, Male, with the help of Japanese funds. But that highlights another problem that small islands nations often face – a lack of money to equip themselves against rising sea levels and waves.

"Walls aren't enough. We need long-term solutions – one could be to heap up the land to make it higher. There are technologies to do it but we unfortunately can't afford it," Rilwan said.

Like many other island inhabitants, the people of the Maldives are worried about becoming climate refugees. President Mohamed Nasheed has been saving state funds to buy land in India, Sri Lanka or Australia where the Maldivians could find new homes in the worst case scenario.

But that's easier said than done. India is struggling with an explosion in its population and Australia has strict immigration laws. But the biggest problem that the Maldives faces is a lack of a robust economy to generate enough funds to help it fight climate change.

Ticking time bomb

One possible solution, admittedly a futuristic one, suggested by Japan involves the construction of flat, green swimming islands with a radius of three kilometers.

The concept is being developed by Japanese construction company Shimizu, which is know for its visionary projects. It's called "green float" and the company envisages the modern-day Noah's Ark to become a new homeland for island residents. A year ago, the company presented the blueprint to a few representatives of small island states.

"Despite the fact that our land is disappearing I'm still very hopeful," Anote Tong, president of Kiribati, an island republic that includes several islands in Micronesia and Polynesia, and is predicted to be one of the first to be submerged.

But it's not clear whether the Japanese-built Noah's Ark will be completed on time. Construction is estimated to begin between 2025 and 2050.

Joining forces against the crisis

Another drawback of the island states' weak economies is that it's difficult for them to draw attention to their plight on the political world stage. That's why 42 of the small states have joined forces in the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). They are demanding support from the rich industrialized nations in the fight against climate change and curbing carbon emissions.

"Countries such as Tuvalu or Nauru haven't contributed at all to climate change but they're the ones who are the hardest hit," Lino Briguglio of the IPCC said.

According to AOSIS, the consequences of climate change are also impacting development in the largely poor island nations. For instance, a large part of their infrastructure and economy, mostly tourism and fishing, is concentrated in coastal regions which are in turn affected the most by climate change.

In the long-term, the only option is to halt or at least slow the pace of climate change if the island states are to survive. Representatives of the affected states regularly travel from one climate conference to the other to push industrialized nations, mainly responsible for climate change, to take action.

But the results so far have been modest as seen at the global climate conference in Copenhagen in December 2009. The deal reached at the summit fell short of expectations. "We must create more public awareness in the world about our problems," Rilwan said. "We're only the ones at the forefront."

Global approach needed

Indeed, climate change also threatens the industrialized world. The southern US state of Louisiana is regularly hit by increasingly violent tropical storms that trigger floods.

The Halligen islands, off the German coast in the North Sea, are known to be submerged several times each year. But now due to rising sea levels, high waves threaten to completely submerge the islands. The only difference is that Germany and the US have the means to counter climate change.

The Maldives are trying a different tack. They aim to become the first carbon-neutral country in the world by 2019. A wind park is already under construction. That alone won't save the islands, but it's hoped that it will lead to a rethink.

Author: Nele Jensch (sp)
Editor: Mark Mattox