Turkey-Iraq ties: Renewed progress, but PKK issue remains

Turkey's leader was clear about what he thought closer cooperation with Iraq would require. Iraq must act against the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which is designated as a terror organization in Turkey and also by the EU, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.

On his first visit to Iraq in over a decade, Erdogan told Iraqi President Abdel Latif Rashid this week "that Iraq must be rid of all forms of terrorism."

Erdogan also met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and the two men decided upon a "strategic framework agreement" focused on security, energy, water and trade. This included a €16 billion ($17 billion) rail and road project. The two men also agreed that Turkey would buy Iraqi oil again. In total, around 24 different agreements were signed this week.

Thanks to shared projects like this, Iraq and Turkey will "build lasting cooperation in all fields," al-Sudani boasted.

Given that the two countries have had tense relations for a while this visit denotes significant progress, said Lucas Lamberty, country director for the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Iraq.

Progress in Turkey-Iraq relations?

Erdogan's meetings followed on from earlier visits by other senior Turkish politicians to Iraq, he noted. "Even just the fact that Erdogan visited at all can already be seen as a success," Lamberty told DW. "It shows that there's good will."

In the past, relations between Iraq and Turkey haven't been great. During the war in neighboring Syria, Turkey supported the rebels fighting that country's dictator Bashar Assad. Meanwhile, Iraq tended to side with the Assad regime, not least because both countries have strong alliances with Iran.

In Iraq, there are a number of Iranian-backed militias, mostly made up of local Shiite Muslims, who currently have a large impact on Iraqi politics.

One of the biggest sticking points to a more friendly relationship between Turkey and Iraq has been the presence of the PKK group in northern Iraq. The group has Kurdish roots and has sought shelter in the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, on the borders of Syria, Iran and Turkey. 

The Turkish have regularly bombed what they see as PKK targets in northern Iraq without asking permission from Iraqi authorities. This has angered Iraqi and Kurdish politicians and has also resulted in civilian casualties.

Turkey always argues that if it didn't do this, then the PKK, whose militant wing has been behind extremist acts in Turkey itself, would cross the border in Turkey and cause them problems. Iraq, however, sees this as an infringement of its own territorial sovereignty.

That's why some observers were surprised when in March this year the Iraqi government conceded to long-standing Turkish demands that it ban the PKK, althouhg Iraq stopped short of designating the PKK a terror organization.

Only a few days earlier, the Turkish defense ministry had declared that it wanted to broaden operations against the PKK in northern Iraq.

"Because the majority of the PKK bases are actually in the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, this also has an internal political dimension for Iraq," Lamberty explained. Iraq's Kurds have their own parliament, laws and military but are also split on how welcome they should make the PKK feel. "The government in Baghdad has taken some steps [towards Turkey], such as banning the PKK. But it remains to be seen how much further it can accommodate Turkey."

The Turkish perspective is that the Erdogan visit to Iraq is an important step in combatting the PKK, says Bilgay Duman, a researcher focused on Iraq at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies in Turkey. "This step is one of the [strategic framework] agreement's greatest achievements," he told DW. 

Iraq and Turkey's vital progress in water distribution

There has also been some rapprochement on another of the biggest points of contention between the two countries: water resources.

Iraq has suffered from water shortages over the past few years. Partially this is due to climate change but it also has to do with how surrounding countries dam or block water.

At the beginning of the 20th century, there was an estimated 1,350 cubic meters per second flowing through the country's rivers on average, the German magazine International Politics and Society reported in late 2023. That amount has since reduced to just 149 cubic meters per second. Tributaries of the country's largest rivers, the Euphrates, Tigris and Diyala, are particularly impacted. And Turkey has built dams on both the Tigris and Euphrates.

"We signed a framework agreement to cooperate on the issue of water, the cooperation involves common projects that will help in the improvement of water management in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers," al-Sudani said during a press conference. The agreement would be valid for 10 years, he added.

"Basically, these agreements are welcome," the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's Lamberty told DW. "The talks didn't really bring any complete solutions. However, the agreements are going to spark a process, and that process will tackle remaining challenges."

Given the complicated relationship that was there before this meeting took place, both sides can claim this week's events as a win, Turkish analyst Duman said.

"Turkeys priority is the fight against the PKK. Iraq's priority is water," he explained. " Now that both sides agree on these two points, we can view these agreements as having a mutual benefit."

Still, from the perspective of the Iraqi government, a solution to the country's chronic water shortage has yet to be found. Iraq's government is simply too weak to assert its own interests against Turkey, concludes Baghdad-based political scientist Ihsan al-Shammari.

Elmas Topcu and Alla Ahmed contributed to this article. It was originally published in German.