Iran-Israel tensions: Which countries can influence Iran?

Israel has vowed a response to Iran's massive missile and drone attack over the weekend, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying in a meeting of Israel's war cabinet on Wednesday that the country will do "everything necessary to defend itself."

In the early hours of Sunday morning, Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in an unprecedented strike launched directly from Iranian territory. Almost all of the drones, rockets and cruise missiles launched by Iran were intercepted by Israeli air defenses with the help of the US, UK, and several Arab countries.

Iran has said the attack was in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus, Syria that killed several high-ranking members of the Revolutionary Guards.

As Israel considers its options, Iran is warning that "the slightest action" by Israel against "Iran's interests" will result in a "harsh, comprehensive and painful response."

Both German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and British Foreign Secretary David Cameron were in Israel on Wednesday and urged Netanyahu to show restraint and keep the situation from escalating out of control.

The US has urged Israel against a military response that would lead to further escalation and, instead, has announced plans to tighten sanctions on Iran. The EU has also announced similar sanction plans.

Western countries are not alone in seeking de-escalation. Several countries have Iran's ear and could play a role in moderating how Tehran responds to any retaliatory action by Israel.

Qatar

According to the Iranian presidential office, Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi spoke to Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani on Tuesday.

During the call, Iranian media reported that Raisi said, "The slightest action against Iran's interests will definitely be met with a severe, extensive and painful response."

Iran and Qatar maintain close diplomatic relations, and both provide support for the Islamist militant group Hamas that is based in Gaza, which is designated as a terror organization by Israel, the US, Germany, and several other countries.

Working with the approval of the Israeli government, Qatar is one of the most important donors of humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip and is considered an important mediator between Israel and Hamas. Under Qatari mediation, Israel and Hamas agreed on a brief ceasefire and prisoner exchange in November 2023.

Oman

The Sultanate operates below the public radar and has long played a crucial role as a mediator between Iran and the US.

Without Oman, the agreements reached in the negotiations on Iran's nuclear program over the last two decades would have been inconceivable. The country is also campaigning on the Arabian Peninsula for the release of American and European prisoners in Iran.

The New York Times reports that the US government has been seeking talks with the Iranian authorities via the Sultanate of Oman and Switzerland since last weekend. The US and Iran have no diplomatic relations so contact must be established via third countries.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia, historically Iran's regional adversary and a close ally of the US, is also keen to prevent the situation from escalating further, as the country relies on oil exports, which would be jeopardized by a full-scale war.

It was not until 2023 that relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran were normalized through the mediation of China. Both countries exchanged ambassadors again, focused on increased trade and even discussed defense cooperation.

However, Saudi Arabia is also unable to exert any direct influence on Iran due to its history and has instead expressed hope that China can play a role in bringing the situation in the Middle East back to normality.

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud spoke with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, this week, according to China's Global Times newspaper.

Wang said China was "willing to work together with Saudi Arabia to prevent further escalation of confrontation" in the Middle East, the report said.

China

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said China has condemned the strike on the Iranian consular building in Damascus as a "serious violation of international law," adding the current situation presents a "choice between deterioration and normalization," the Global Times reported.

Officials in Beijing have made similar statements calling for de-escalation in state media.

And there is reason to believe Iran would take China's input into consideration. China is Iran's most important trading partner, an both countries also cooperate militarily.

Foreign Minister Wang and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian had a phone conversation on Monday, during which Yang called for restraint.

Wang added that China condemned the missile attack on the Iranian embassy building in Damascus in the United Nations Security Council.  However, no agreement on a condemnation was reached by the UN body itself.

"China does not want the situation in the Middle East to spiral out of control. The country is already facing rising transportation costs and a drastic increase in energy supply risks," James Dorsey, a political scientist at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, told the Singaporean newspaper Zaobao.

However, Dorsey added that China lacks communication channels with Israel. "The only thing China can do is appeal to Israel, together with the international community, to avoid escalation and react with restraint."

Russia

Russia has traditionally maintained good political relations with Israel, Palestinian groups, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Following the recent strikes, Moscow demanded restraint from both Israel and Iran.

The Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, emphasized on Monday in a conversation with the head of the Israeli National Security Council, Zachi Ha-Negbi, the need for "restraint on all sides of the conflict in the Middle East in order to prevent an escalation."

Patrushev emphasized that Russia's position is that tensions between Israel and Iran should be settled "exclusively by political and diplomatic means," according to Russian news agencies.

Russia has long been considered a close ally of Iran, with Tehran and Moscow expanding their cooperation under US sanctions. Iran also supplies drones to the Russian army, which are used against Ukraine.

The increasing tension between Iran and Israel is diverting attention away from the war in Ukraine, and it is questionable whether Russia is interested in de-escalation in the Middle East.

"Anything that leads to an increase in energy prices, especially higher oil prices, is beneficial for Russia, at least in the short term and even in the medium term," David Sharp, an Israeli military expert, told DW. 

"But if Iran were involved in a major war and a war were waged against Iran, it would theoretically be possible to restrict Iranian arms supplies to Russia," he added.

Turkey

Turkey has supported the Palestinian position since the early days of the Middle East conflict. Last week, Ankara even announced economic sanctions against Israel. At the same time, the Turkish government also fears further tension and violence between Iran and Israel. It has called on both parties to exercise restraint.

"Unlike other countries in the region, such as Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia, Turkey has a long land border with Iran," said Gulru Gezer, diplomat and director of foreign policy at the Turkish Economic Policy Research Foundation (TEPAV).

"Possible instability in neighboring Iran could have serious consequences for Turkey, especially with regard to migration from Iran. Unfortunately, Turkey had to experience this with the wars in Syria and Iraq," Gezer told DW.

This article was originally written in German

With additonal reporting by: Cathrin Schaer, Yun-Ching Chang, Olga Tikhomirova, Gülsen Solaker, Wesley Rahn