India-Russia Nuclear Deal on the Cards

An Indo-Russian nuclear deal, along the lines of the Indo-US 123 agreement, would be a politically-correct move and have the potential of emerging as the mother of all political strokes by the Indian government.

It is common knowledge that the Manmohan Singh government has been rapped on its knuckles by the Bhartiya Janta Party-led opposition, the so-called Third Front, as well as by its allies from the Left because of the nuclear deal issue.

While there has been a palpable rapprochement between the Indian government and the Left parties and the fast–soaring political temperature has been brought down by both sides in the past couple of days, a question mark continues to hang over the future of Indo-US nuclear deal.

Energy-starved India

So a similar deal with Russia, India’s long-standing tried and tested friend, could do the trick for energy-starved India. What’s more, this deal could be operational much quicker than the 123 agreement with the US, as the Russian government has total control over its legislature, unlike the powerful US Congress, which can't be bypassed by the US president.

Sometime in December, the Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh is expected to visit Russia for an annual summit meeting, though the dates of his Moscow visit are yet to be decided. A key area for discussion will be civilian nuclear energy co-operation.

Moscow has conveyed its keenness to develop civilian nuclear energy co-operation with India along the lines of the Indo-US nuclear deal. Russia is understood to have asked India to work on a rough draft for such a nuclear deal.

Moscow wants Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to have Atomic Energy Commission chief Anil Kakodkar in his official entourage during the Russia trip so that a meaningful discussion on the matter can be held.

123 on the back burner

From the indications available, Manmohan Singh’s Russia visit is likely to be historic -- and a clever political tactic. The Left parties, which are bitterly opposed to Indo-US nuclear deal, will not object to a similar deal between India and Russia.

Indications are that the Indian government could be willing to put the 123 agreement on back burner and not take its show-down with the Left over the issue to the hilt. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohammad ElBaradei, concluded his three-day visit to India on Thursday, after meeting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon.

ElBaradei later made it clear that there was no deadline for India to sign an India-specific Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA. He also added, helpfully to the Manmohan Singh government, that no formal discussions on the Indo-US nuclear deal had taken place between him and the Indian officials.

However, to put the 123 agreement on course, the negotiations on the draft text of the Safeguards Agreement would have to be underway by next week. The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) clearance is not a time-consuming process and could be completed in a matter of a few days.

The time frame is urgent as the US needs to know as soon as possible when to call an emergency meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which they would prefer to hold sometime in November. But at this point in time, the 123 agreement does not seem likely to be clinched so fast.