IISS military think tank says 'more dangerous decade' likely

With major wars being waged on multiple continents, the world is facing "what is likely to be a more dangerous decade," a British military think-tank said on Tuesday.

"The current military-security situation heralds what is likely to be a more dangerous decade, characterized by the brazen application by some of military power to pursue claims," the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in its annual Military Balance report.

The report cited Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Israel's war against Hamas militants in Gaza and Beijing's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea.

But it also pointed to rising tensions in the Arctic, North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons and the rise of military juntas in the Sahel region of Africa as contributing to a "deteriorating security environment."

Global military spend increases

The report found that global military spending grew by 9% to in 2023 to reach $2.2 trillion (€2 trillion).

It said the United States and Europe are ramping up missile and ammunition production after decades of underinvestment because they now face an "era of insecurity" exemplified by the war in Ukraine.

NATO defense funding recently received renewed attention after former US President Donald Trump told a campaign rally during his time in office, he told an unidentified NATO country that he would "encourage" Russia to attack members of the alliance that don't meet their funding commitments.

"'You didn't pay? You're delinquent?'" Trump recounted himself as saying. "'No I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.'"

Meanwhile, the report noted that Iran's influence in conflict zones has increased as it supplies missiles to the Houthis in Yemen and drones to Russia.

China had also demonstrated "increased power-projection capacity," it added.

"While Western defense spending is rising and plans to revamp equipment are ongoing, we reflect on the challenges including those set by Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, China's military modernization and events in the Middle East," said IISS chief executive Bastian Giegerich.

zc/rc (AFP, AP)