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New government, old problems

Andreas Gorzewski / ccSeptember 10, 2014

The new Iraqi cabinet has been sworn in. Its task now is to push ahead in the battle against "IS" terrorists, and keep the country together. But prospects of success are overshadowed by religious and ethnic tensions.

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Irak Vereidigung der neuen Regierung 08.09.2014
Image: Reuters/Hadi Mizban

The vote in Baghdad has clearly sparked tremendous relief in Washington and Tehran. Following months of crisis, the Iraqi parliament has confirmed Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and his cabinet in office.

US Secretary of State John Kerry called it a "major milestone" and a "cornerstone of our efforts" against the Sunni terrorist organization "Islamic State" ("IS"). Iran also promptly congratulated its neighbor, with President Hassan Rouhani expressing hope that the new government would bring calm to the whole country.

However, it remains to be seen whether the new government will be able to meet these high expectations. Some key posts have yet to be filled: At the swearing-in ceremony the cabinet was short of an interior and a defense minister.

Many of those now sitting around the table have dominated Iraqi politics since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. The Kurdish politician and former foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari is now one of two deputy prime ministers. The other is Saleh al-Mutlaq, a Sunni who has held this post since 2010. The Foreign Office is now headed by Ibrahim al-Jafari, a Shiite who was himself interim prime minister from 2005 to 2006.

Former premier Nouri al-Maliki, also a Shiite, has not disappeared from the political stage. In future he will be one of three vice presidents who will, however, have only limited influence.

"There are a lot of old faces. There's actually hardly anyone new," Anja Wehler-Schöck told DW. The head of the Jordanian office of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung said that as a result, many Iraqis have the impression that al-Abadi has simply reshuffled the previous government.

Nonetheless, she said, the shift from al-Maliki to al-Abadi is an important step. "In recent years, al-Maliki was increasingly behaving like a new dictator and opponent of reform," she said. By contrast, al-Abadi is regarded as moderate and prepared to compromise.

Irak Vereidigung der neuen Regierung 08.09.2014
Iraq's new government took the oath of office on MondayImage: Reuters/Hadi Mizban

Ministers needed to fight 'IS'

In the defense and interior ministries there are also parallels with the old government. The leaderships of these two strategic ministries, so important in the fight against internal and external threats, were already vacant under al-Maliki. He put interim ministers into the departments, then effectively ran them himself.

"Al-Maliki [followed] a logic of concentration of power, which did not allow him to concede these posts to other - in particular, opposition - forces," explained Myriam Benraad of the Center for International Studies and Research at Sciences Po university in Paris. Al-Abadi has reserved the right to choose his own ministers if a suitable candidate is not found within a week. That, said Benraad, has led to concern that there could be a repeat of al-Maliki's way of doing things.

Meanwhile, Wehler-Schöck believes that, given the current political tensions in Iraq, it will almost certainly be impossible to name two ministers before the deadline.

The formation of a government was blocked for months by deep divisions between Sunni, Shia and Kurdish parties, and even alliances within Shia party itself. Al-Maliki's increasingly autocratic leadership had alienated the Sunni minority in particular, thereby fostering the disintegration of the country and the empowerment of the Sunni "IS" militants.

Al-Abadi is now trying to better integrate the rival groups once more. So far, the Sunnis have seven ministries in the new cabinet. However, Wehler-Schöck pointed out that the number of positions does not automatically reflect their influence within the government. In the previous legislative period, for example, Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq was marginalized by al-Maliki and prevented from carrying out his office.

Irak Vereidigung der neuen Regierung 08.09.2014
Iraq's outgoing prime minister al-Maliki (left) congratulated his successorImage: Reuters/Hadi Mizban

"This demonstrates that simply giving Sunnis office does not necessarily mean that the discrimination and marginalization of this population group will be brought to an end," explained the Middle East expert.

New government faces many challenges

Right at the top of the list of tasks facing the new cabinet is the fight against "IS," and the ongoing disintegration of the state. Al-Abadi's cabinet will also have to respond to the Iraqi Kurds' demands for extensive autonomy. "These are huge tasks," said Wehler-Schöck, adding that they will also have to address the issues of failing infrastructure and high unemployment.

French researcher Benraad regrets the lack of a common strategy among the most important political forces. The danger that Iraq may actually fall apart is still being overshadowed by a domestic political tug-of-war.

"All the disputes and fighting are focused on who's going to get what, but the emergency is still there, the 'Islamic State' continues its conquest, and I think that the real challenge for this government is to come up with a strategy," she said.