Syrian opposition

Syria's rebels are under intense military pressure. The Syrian Army is better armed than the anti-Assad fighters.

"Until now, the opposition has not presented a real military challenge," said Syria expert Heiko Wimmen of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).

So some Gulf States like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have pledged significant financial support to the opposition. 100 million dollars have been offered for just the next three months, said Molham al-Drobi, a member of the Syrian National Council.

The money is intended to be used in part as payment for the rebels, offering a financial incentive for members of the government's troops to join the rebels. Al-Drobi said that money is already going to the fighters - 500,000 dollars (375,000 euros) just in the last few weeks.

Buying support

Such financing could shift the balance of power in Syria, said Henner Fürtig of the GIGA Institute of Middle East Studies in Hamburg.

"On the open market, you can buy any kind of arms you want for that kind of money. That would really strengthen the anti-Assad forces," he said.

But more weapons mean more violence and an escalation of the conflict. The number of casualties would rise on both sides.

Further, doubts remain about whether financial support from abroad is enough to secure victory over the Assad regime. Troops from outside the country have to join the opposition fighters, argues Syria expert Heiko Wimmen.

"But no one wants to do that at the moment," he said.

Even within the Syrian opposition, there's no consensus on whether to welcome military support from abroad. Many consider it more realistic to divide the Syrian army. Money from Gulf States could be used to pay army deserters. But, as Wimmen points out, accepting money from abroad could damage the rebels' credibility if the Assad regime successfully brands the opposition as mercenaries in a war supported by foreign nations.

Plan for peace

A recent peace proposal by Kofi Annan, United Nations and Arab League envoy to Syria, seems less and less realistic. The plan calls for a ceasefire and negotiations between the regime and the opposition.

Officially, Assad supported the plan, but there are no signs of a ceasefire. The armed struggles have continued. Syria's president just wanted to generate the impression of being cooperative, said Heiko Wimmen: "Assad is trying to buy time."

"Negotiations would only concern Assad if he had guarantees from the international community for the survival of his regime," Fürtig said. It's an unlikely proposition.

The Syrian opposition is unlikely to get involved with a negotiation process, as Assad knows. He also knows that a democratic process could easily lead to his downfall, so he continues to rely on international appeasement while attempting to destroy the opposition at home.

One thing remains clear: The situation in Syria is no longer about an internal rebellion against a despotic regime. The country has become the battlefield for regional and geopolitical interests. The Gulf states supporting the opposition stand to benefit from a rebel victory. For one, that would deprive their main rival, Iran of its most important regional ally.

Author: Nils Naumann / gsw
Editor: Shant Shahrigian