GROUP A: Portugal, Greece, Russia, Spain

Portugal should only look as far back as 2000 to see what the pressure of a home crowd can do to a team pursuing the European prize on home soil. In the last championships, Holland were flying from the start and recording huge wins over competent opposition in the sea of orange that greeted their every game in the Low Countries. And yet, to use a popular soccer term, when they got to the semi-final they lost their bottle. The Portuguese however may not even get that far before the weight of a nation causes them to buckle. The opening game of the 2004 championships will see the home side up against the Greeks with not only the first points of the tournament up for grabs but the chance to test their mettle in front of their own very expectant supporters. If everything goes to plan, Greece will have been defeated on June 12, the Russians similarly brushed aside on June 16 to set up a top of the group clash with fierce rivals Spain. If disaster has already struck after the first game, then the house of cards could already be tumbling. Volatile at the best of times, a Portugal side with baying fans on their back could well combust in spectacular style.

Greece could well cause the first upset on the opening day by turning over the hosts. It is not inconceivable that they could then go on to humble the inconsistent Spanish four days later and secure a quarter-final spot with a win over the Russians. The Greeks can hope for at least one victory in Group A and would be very happy with more than that, although picking points up through draws will not be enough if the home team plays to their strengths and the real Spain shows up for once.

If years of underachievement are to be wiped away, Spain needs to take advantage of a weak Russian team in their first game. Buoyed by their first points, Spain would take on the more difficult Greeks but should overcome them comfortably. That would set up a Group A showdown with neighbours Portugal in what will feel like a home game for the Spanish as much as for the hosts.

DW Prediction: Portugal and Spain to qualify.