Germany's governing coalition collapses

A minority government is not completely new to Germany, although they have been rare at the federal, rather than state, level.

Such an arrangement was in play in 1966 under conservative Christian Democrat (CDU) Chancellor Ludwig Erhard and also in 1982 under Helmut Schmidt of the Social Democrats (SPD). Both minority governments only lasted a few weeks.

In the first case, Erhard was replaced by his party colleague Kurt Georg Kiesinger, who managed to forge a grand coalition with the SPD. In the second case, Schmidt's minority government ended with a constructive vote of no confidence, which made Helmut Kohl of the CDU chancellor.

The chances of success for a minority government would hardly be any better today. The SPD and Greens would need partners for each decision on a case-by-case basis.

The conservative union of the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), ruled out joining a coalition with the SPD as a junior partner under Chancellor Scholz. 

It could, however, help a minority SPD-Green government to gain a majority in the Bundestag as part of a looser confidence-and-supply agreement. However, the CDU-CSU bloc currently appears more interested in pushing for new elections.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is doing the same and support from the populist party for the SPD and Greens would be out of the question on principle. 

The socialist Left Party and the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which split from the Left, have too few lawmakers in the Bundestag to be considered as a majority provider of support to a potential minority government.

The three parties' basic political convictions did not sit together well in the first place.

The Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens are essentially left-wing parties that believe in a strong state and need a lot of money for social policy and climate protection.

The economically liberal Free Democrats (FDP) are of the opposite opinion: They want a lean state that should only intervene in exceptional cases and exercise financial restraint.

During the election campaign, the party promised to balance the budget and comply with the debt brake enshrined in Germany's constitution.

The promise to uphold confidentiality and to go public only with solutions to problems, not the bickering that went before, did not last 100 days.

However, no government had ever faced such massive challenges before. The COVID-19 pandemic dragged on, Russia invaded Ukraine, gas and oil supplies failed and Germany slipped into an energy crisis. Read more on how things fell apart.

Olaf Scholz seemed calm and composed when he addressed the media.

The chancellor, who has often been criticized for coming across as dull and technocratic, displayed confidence and determination when he explained why he had just dismissed his finance minister.

This announcement was a bombshell. The chancellor spoke with a slight vocal tremor, indicating how personal things had become for him.

He bitterly attacked Lindner's "petty political tactics" and accused him of a level of egoism that is "completely incomprehensible."

"Finance Minister Lindner showed no willingness to implement any of our proposals," Scholz said. Read more about how Scholz made the announcement.

After the breakdown of the traffic light coalition, Germany's socialist Left Party has already started its election campaign.

"The battle for the seats for the left of center has begun — and that is a good thing," the party leadership and the Left's Bundestag group declared together. 

The Left would bring "a fresh left-wing wind into the country," said party leaders Ines Schwerdtner and Jan van Aken, and the chairs of the Bundestag group, Heidi Reichinnek and Sören Pellmann.

They accused the traffic light coalition members of causing instability and ruining the country with austerity.

"Now it is plunging the country into the next crisis. As democratic parties, the SPD, Greens and FDP have a responsibility to ensure stability," the statement said. 

It said the traffic light coalition had not only failed recently but had "not managed to create security for the vast majority of the country" throughout its three years in power.

The opposition far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party says it welcomed the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's governing coalition as long overdue and a "liberation" for Germany.

The AfD leaders in Germany's lower house of parliament, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, accused the coalition of leading the country to an economic abyss.

"After months of gridlock and countless self-centered therapy sessions, we now urgently need a fundamental political fresh start to lead the economy and the country as a whole out of the severe crisis into which it has been plunged by the ideology-driven policies of the SPD, Greens and FDP," they added.

The leaders urged Scholz to immediately call a vote of confidence.

After sacking the FDP's Christian Lindner, effectively ending the coalition with the Free Democrats, Olaf Scholz is expected to head a minority government with his Social Democrats and the Greens.

He would have to rely on cobbled-together parliamentary majorities to pass laws and he plans to hold a parliamentary confidence vote in his government on January 15.

This could trigger snap elections by the end of March.

Scholz said he would ask Conservative leader Friedrich Merz for support in passing the budget and boosting military spending, with Merz expected to respond in a Thursday morning news conference.

A "traffic light" coalition in Germany includes the center-left Social Democrats (SPD — represented by red), the business-focused Free Democrats (FDP — represented by yellow), and the environmentalist Greens.

The traffic light coalition formed under Chancellor Olaf Scholz in 2021 is just one example. 

Germany's 2021 general election saw the Social Democrats emerge as the biggest party in Germany's lower house, the Bundestag, ahead of its main rival, the conservative CDU/CSU union.

The SPD had shared power as a junior coalition partner with conservatives in a so-called "grand coalition" for three terms during Chancellor Angela Merkel's 16 years in office. 

Three years ago, both parties ruled out the possibility of a similar, if reversed situation with the conservatives as junior. 

Instead, the political pendulum swung toward the traffic light coalition.

After long negotiations, the three parties announced a deal in late November 2021, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his cabinet taking office soon afterward.

It was on EU, foreign, and security policy that the three parties seem to be most aligned.

However, there were always fundamental differences in the parties' domestic platforms.

The FDP was against the SPD and Greens' plan to raise taxes on the wealthiest to deal with the pandemic and the resulting national debt.

Lindner's liberals appear also at odds with both parties' climate policy, which envisions a stronger government hand. Instead, the FDP wanted market-driven solutions to the climate crisis.

More recently, the three parties remained deeply divided over next year's budget and the steps required to fix the country's ailing economy.

 

Germany's Free Democratic Party, until today a member of the "traffic light" coalition, has announced it is withdrawing all ministers from Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government.

The FDP's parliamentary group leader Christian Dürr made the announcement in Berlin — formally ending the three-party coalition crafted in late 2021. 

German political scientist Jana Puglierin took to Twitter to post the question of how long it might take until Germany has a fully functioning government after Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democrats (FDP) party was sacked from the three-party coalition. 

Considering the usual protocol needed to forge a new German government through elections, Puglieri forecast that the country might be left without effective leadership until the middle of next year.

"Just so I understand this correctly: If the vote of confidence takes place in January and the election in March and then exploratory talks and coalition negotiations follow, then we will not have a new functioning government until the end of May or rather in June 2025?" she tweeted on the platform now known as X.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says he plans to contact opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democrats to examine quick joint solutions to strengthen the German economy and defense.

"I will now very quickly seek dialogue with the leader of the opposition, Friedrich Merz," the Social Democratic leader said in Berlin.

Scholz said he wants to offer Merz the opportunity to work together constructively on two or even more issues "that are crucial for our country: On the rapid strengthening of our economy and our defense."

The chancellor said the German economy cannot wait until new elections have taken place.

"And we now need clarity on how we can solidly finance our security and defense in the coming years without jeopardizing cohesion in the country," he said.

Regarding the US elections, he said this was "perhaps more urgent than ever."

"It is about making the decision that our country needs now. I will seek dialogue on this with the responsible opposition."

Merz, a lawyer from western Germany, is seen as a polarizing figure within the CDU itself.

According to the German constitution, a decision to hold early federal elections cannot be made by the members of the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, nor by the chancellor.

An early dissolution of parliament can only come about in one of two ways:

In the first case, if a candidate for chancellor does not win an absolute parliamentary majority — at least 367 votes in the 733-seat Bundestag — the German president can dissolve the parliament. This has never happened in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany.

In the second case, a chancellor can call for a vote of confidence in the Bundestag to confirm whether he or she still has sufficient parliamentary support.

If the chancellor fails to win a majority, he or she can formally ask the President to dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days.

Following the dissolution of parliament, new elections must be held within 60 days. They are organized in the same way as normal general elections.

The Federal Republic of Germany had three early Bundestag elections in its history. Read more on how they unfolded.

Chancellor Scholz said there will be a vote of confidence on his government on January 15, 2025.

The move could push Germany's parliamentary elections, scheduled for fall of 2025, to March 2025.

Scholz said he planned to ask for a vote of confidence so that MPs "can decide whether to clear the way for early elections" which could be held by the end of March -- six months earlier than scheduled.

He bitterly attacked Lindner's "petty political tactics" and accused him of a level of egoism that is "completely incomprehensible".

Max Hofmann, head of DW News, said that Scholz has been criticized by the opposition for proposing a vote of confidence in January, instead of at an earlier date.

Hofmann said that there might be some calculation on behalf of Olaf Scholz and his Social Democrats that "given a little more time" they may be able to "convince voters that they are worth another vote in March."

"Scholz wants to introduce laws, get laws passed by the end of the year, and get things done that he still had planned. Whether this is going to be successful or not is a different story, and that lands him on January 15 for a vote of confidence," Hofmann said. 

"If he loses that vote, which seems extremely likely at this point, that brings us to March for early elections, and probably a new government for Germany," he added.

Scholz delivered a press conference explaining his decision to fire his finance minister, which has put his coalition in danger of collapsing.

Scholz also used the speech to discuss how Germany must go forward in the aftermath of the US election.

Asked why he sacked Lindner, Scholz said: "He has broken my trust too often... Serious government work is not possible under such circumstances."

"Finance Minister Lindner showed no willingness to implement any of our proposals," Scholz said.

He added that German companies need immediate support and "anybody who refuses that is acting irresponsibly," in reference to the impasse with Lindner.

Scholz said that after the US elections, where Donald Trump has been elected, Germany now "needs to show we can be relied on."

Minutes before news of Finance Minister Lindner's dismissal was announced, German media reported that the Free Democrats leader had suggested holding early elections next year to his partner Chancellor Scholz. 

The suggestion was proposed as a solution to the government's crisis. Scholz had rejected the suggestion, the Bild newspaper reported.