Germany's conflict with Russia remains

There is hardly a better symbol for the balancing act of German foreign policy between economic interests on one side and the values of liberal democracy on the other than Nord Stream 2 — one of Germany's biggest infrastructure projects. Several German politicians called for a halt to building the pipeline, which will transport gas from Russia directly to Germany's Baltic coast, especially in the wake of the poisoning attack on Kremlin opponent Alexi Navalny.

The controversial natural gas project is only one of many issues with which Merkel must contend when she travels to Russia and then Ukraine for what will probably be her last political visit. In view of several conflicts and disagreements, experts speak of a current "low point" in German-Russian relations.

Nord Stream 2: Billion-dollar business

Germany is holding its federal election on September 26. Either Olaf Scholz, Armin Laschet or Annalena Baerbock will replace Merkel as chancellor.

In the ongoing Bundestag election campaign, there are astonishing overlaps between rival opposition parties when it comes to Nord Stream 2. The FDP foreign policy spokesperson Alexander Graf Lambsdorff sharply criticizes Merkel's government, which he says has "negligently neglected the diplomatic integration of the project with our partners in Europe and America for years." Above all, Merkel's long-held argument that Nord Stream 2 was solely an economic project has caused a lot of foreign policy damage, he argued.

The Greens and their chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock share that view. Their tough stance on the policies of the Kremlin has earned them a lot of support in conservative, middle-class circles in Germany.

The chancellor candidate for the Social Democrats (SPD) party, Olaf Scholz, called for a new European Union policy toward the east during a recent interview with DW. He wanted to upgrade the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe), which was co-founded by Helmut Schmidt, a former German Social Democrat chancellor. Scholz wanted to strengthen the EU as a whole, not just individual member states.

"We don't want to return to the political world of the 17th, 18th, or 19th centuries when powers like Russia, Germany, France, and England shaped policy among themselves. If we want to ensure joint security in Europe, then it's about the European Union and Russia."

German-Russian relations 'at a low point'

Janis Kluge, an expert on Eastern Europe at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, SWP), views the current relationship between Berlin and Moscow as at an all-time low in post-Soviet history. After Russia's annexation of Crimea, the poisoning of Navalny and support for the regime in Belarus have finally led to a change in awareness among German politicians — the majority now see Russia as a strategic adversary, says Kluge.

According to him, there are three big problem areas in German-Russian relations:

Firstly: Russia's increasingly repressive domestic policies and the persecution of independent media, non-governmental organizations, and the political opposition. The case of Navalny is only the most prominent example of this.

Secondly: The operations of the Russian secret services in the EU. That is not only about direct attacks but on computer hacking attacks on political institutions in Germany.

Thirdly: The conflict in Ukraine is the key issue in the German-Russian relationship. "As long as there is no progress in this crisis, it will not be possible to attempt to restore confidence in Russia," says Janis Kluge.

Russia as an anti-liberal superpower

Ralf Fücks, the director of the Center for Liberal Modernity (LibMod - Zentrum Liberale Moderne), a Berlin-based think tank which recently had to cease its activities in Russia after being included on a government list of "undesirable organizations," sees the relationship with Russia as "at a very critical point." That's because: "Putin's Russia has become an antagonist to the liberal democracies of the West, both in terms of foreign and security policy," he says. "The systematic undermining of Western democracies, cooperation with right-wing and left-wing populist parties, violations of international law and international norms, whether they be in Syria or Ukraine — Russian is on a collision course with the West. And we struggle to find an answer to this," Fücks continues.

The main goal for the next government will be to develop a common EU policy on Russia. For all three German chancellor candidates, Fücks sees the task not as establishing a better relationship with Vladimir Putin, but in a "readjusting of the relationship between conflict and cooperation." The point is to make it clear where the red lines are for the EU and Germany, which we will defend against attacks, he added.

'Russia exploits the West's inability to act'

Stefan Meister, head of the program for international order and democracy at the German Council on Foreign Relations (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, DGAP) in Berlin also speaks of a "low point" in Germany-Russia relations. However, he also sees a part of the solution in Germany: "We should simply be more realistic about what is possible in Russia, we should also support the forces who want a different Russia and some of them are increasingly going abroad."

But regarding the Navalny case, Stefan Meister says: "We should not be driven by populists and social media, but rather clearly assess that this change in Russia is not taking place right now in this form, but it will come in the medium to long-term." He considers Navalny to be a populist whose role in Russian politics is overestimated.

In recent years, the Putin regime has cleverly exploited the West's inability to act in order to play a decisive role in key conflicts, says Stefan Meister. Whether in Syria, Libya, or the South Caucasus, there is no getting around Russia, the expert from the DGAP said. He urges more pragmatism and less hysteria: to look for compromises where they are possible.

This article was adapted from German. It was first published on August 27, 2021, and later updated.

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