Palestinian bid for statehood

When the Palestinians filed their application for UNESCO membership in late October, Germany voted against it. They still made it into the UNESCO by a large majority and celebrated their moment of success. But things are a lot more difficult when it comes to the United Nations themselves. The powerful Security Council decides about bids for membership, and the chances for the Palestinians look bleak.

One vote was clear from the beginning: The US - a close ally of Israel - will oppose the application. France and Great Britain will likely abstain, and Russia and China have announced their support. And Germany? It's opposed to the plans as such, but hasn't indicated yet whether it will abstain or vote against them. The German government has said it wants to see the resolution first before making a final decision.

Israel's security as raison d' être

In September, Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian autonomy authority, filed the application for full membership in the UN - ignoring strong warning signals by Israel and the United States. It was Abbas' reaction to a long hiatus of peace talks and continuous construction of new settlements on Palestinian land.

By taking his case to the United Nations Abbas drew global attention to the Palestinians' fate again and strengthened his own position at the same time. Berlin however was puzzled by his move. Israel's security is a central pillar for German foreign policy, so it was no big surprise that Berlin warned of a new escalation of violence in the Middle East.

Road map to peace without travellers

Germany's foreign minister Guido Westerwelle (FDP) considered the Palestinian move an unnecessary escalation of the situation and an act of confrontation and reiterated that only direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians could lead to a solution. The Middle East Quartet consisting of the UN, the EU, the US and Russia reacted by issuing a new time table for peace talks.

Germany reminded the conflict parties to stick to this time table and warned to refrain from unilateral moves. Shortly thereafter Israel approved the construction of 1,100 new housing units in Gilo in the Arab east part of Jeruslaem.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) reacted with indignation. In a phone call with Israel's premier Benjamin Netanyahu, she made it clear that she was "not appreciative" of this move. The Middle East Quartet's new road map for negotiations so far remains nothing but a piece of paper. Not even the first step of the plan has been carried out yet.

Opposition laments Berlin's stance

In Germany meanwhile, the opposition has criticized the government for positioning itself so early against the Palestinian initiative. "This has allowed the Netanyahu administration to pull out of any obligation to be open for new peace negotiations and to stop their settlement activities," said Social Democrat Rolf Mützenich, the Middle East expert of SPD's parliamentary group.

In addition, the government's stance had contributed to the division of the European Union on this issue, added Mützenich. "A split European vote at the Security Council would be a fatal signal for any future common European Middle East policy."

Wolfgang Gehrcke, the foreign affairs expert of the left party Die Linke also critizes the government's stance. A two-state-solution would only be possible, he said, if the Palestinians also had their own state. He views their bid at the UN as a step in this direction. "The German government disappoints the Palestinian autonomy government," said Gehrcke, adding that romancing about the Arab spring wasn't enough, and that Palestine too needed real progress.

Security Council divided

At least nine of the fifteen Security Council votes are needed in order for the Palestinian bid for membership to be successful. Whether the Palestinians will get them remains unclear. But even if they do, their quest will likely fail in the end because the US has already announced it will use its veto.

As a permanent member, Washington can veto any decision made by the Security Council. Should their bid for full membership fail, the Palestinians then can apply for an extended observer status with the United Nations.

Author: Nina Werkhäuser / nh
Editor: Peter Stützle / Michael Knigge