World Cup draw
December 3, 2009Germany is one of eight seeded teams and a result will miss out on facing the likes of hosts South Africa, Brazil, Spain, Holland, Italy, Argentina and England.
But this doesn't mean that the passage to glory will be easy – and of course, Germany will most likely have to face some of the other top seeds eventually if they want to lift the trophy on July 11.
FIFA's draw for the opening group stages for South Africa 2010 means that Germany will face a team from each of the other three pots. These have been designed to keep countries from the same continental confederation apart. But because there are 13 European qualifiers, up to two will be allowed in each group with the remaining unseeded European teams being chosen from Pot Four.
Germany's first group opponents will be drawn from Pot Two, which features teams from Asia, Oceania as well as North and Central America. This contains Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, the United States, Mexico and Honduras.
Africa and South America provide the teams for Pot Three, comprising of Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria, Algeria, Paraguay, Chile and Uruguay.
The unseeded European qualifiers in Pot Four are France, Portugal, Slovenia, Switzerland, Greece, Serbia, Denmark and Slovakia.
Best case scenario
A potential best case scenario for head coach Jogi Loew's team could feature a group comprised of New Zealand, Paraguay (or Uruguay) and Greece.
New Zealand are only at their second ever World Cup finals and hopes for a shock run in South Africa are not high. The All Whites were a plucky, up-for-it sideshow at the Confederations Cup earlier this year but lacked the experience and quality to deal with the likes of Spain and South Africa. If they end up in Germany's group, expect Die Mannschaft to exploit their pub team defending at every opportunity.
It's a toss-up between Paraguay and Uruguay as to which Pot Three adversary would better suit Germany. Uruguay may have had to battle through a play-off with Costa Rica to make the finals but the strength of their team character was evident while fending off challenges from Ecuador and Colombia to seal fifth place in the CONMEBOL group. However, against one of the most organized sides in Europe, Uruguay would struggle against Germany.
Paraguay fared better in the South American qualifying group but have lost their way of late with seven defeats in 10 games. While they have made it beyond the group stage three times in their last four World Cup finals, it's unlikely that they will this time – especially if they have to face Germany.
Greece have somewhat dropped off the radar since the miraculous Euro 2004 victory. Like New Zealand, this will be only their second World Cup after going out at the group stage in 1994. They qualified for South Africa 2010 by beating Ukraine in a play-off but despite having the top scorer in European qualifying in their side – Theofanis Gekas – the Greeks may prove obstinate opponents but are unlikely to trouble the Germans should they meet.
Worst case scenario
The teams Germany will be hoping most to avoid in the group stage will be the United States, Ivory Coast and France.
The US seem to be able rise to the challenge of the World Cup and despite not having enough staying power just yet to make a real attempt on the summit, the Americans seem to have reached a level of consistency which provides Europe's big guns with a real test.
Europe's best take the US lightly at their peril, as the Americans proved when they beat Spain in the sem-finals of the Confederations Cup and were desperately unlucky to lose against Brazil in the final. If the US have their tails up against Germany and the Germans play their brand of stodgy, smothering soccer they use against cavalier teams, the Americans could spring a surprise.
Any one from a hattrick of African nations in Pot Three could really upset Germany. Ghana are muscular and offensive while Cameroon retain an almost insane unpredictability but Ivory Coast, with the talismanic Didier Drogba up front, could be the most dangerous.
Drogba is a handful for any defense in the world so if the Ivory Coast back line can remain strong – who knows? Despite going out at the group stage in their first finals in 2006, the Elephants still managed to ruffle feathers in the Group of Death, scoring an average of two goals a game against the likes of Argentina, the Netherlands and Serbia. Germany should take notice.
Away from all the controversy of 'that' handball and their rather erratic qualifying campaign, France will still be a team the Germans will want to avoid. Villain du jour Thierry Henry is still one of the best strikers in the world and his partner up front, Nicolas Anelka, has been reborn at Chelsea. It's also likely that Franck Ribery will be fit by the summer. Jogi Loew will be hoping they end up in someone else's group.
Germans hoping to avoid Spain, Brazil
The group stages are just one of the potential World Cup stories which will begin to unfold in Cape Town on Friday. The whole match schedule will be laid out and Germany will be looking beyond the group stage and be hoping to be in the opposite half of the draw to teams like Brazil and Spain.
With every hope of reaching the latter stages of the tournament, Loew will want to postpone meeting the two current best sides in the world for as long as possible.
Spain continue to look formidable with a record of 40 victories in their last 44 matches, and Fernando Torres and David Villa remain the most lethal strike pairing in the world. Backed by a midfield triumvirate of Alonso, Iniesta and Xavi, Spain will be one of the favorites.
With Kaka pulling the strings, Brazil are also an offensive unit to keep a rival coach awake at night. Luis Fabiano scored nine goals in 11 qualifying matches and he can be complimented by the likes of Robinho, Nilmar or Elano. With a solid defense and a midfield anchored by Melo and Gilberto Silva, they're also hard to break down.
But let's not forget that most teams will also want to avoid Germany. Die Mannschaft has won seven of its last 10 matches and have only once failed to make the last eight in 17 World Cups. Jogi Loew will also be able to field players with experience from two previous World Cups as well as a host of exciting youngsters. No-one will underestimate Germany despite their apparent lack of glitz and glamour.
Author: Nick Amies
Editor: Chuck Penfold