German conservatives find new strength in post-Merkel times

When Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), took to the stage at the party conference of the Christian Social Union (CSU) in Augsburg last Saturday, he delivered an hour-long celebration of the parties' newfound unity. "We're unbeatable when we stick together," Merz told the regional Bavarian party's delegates, pointing to their respective poll leads.

The CDU and the CSU are distinct parties united by a sometimes creaky marriage that goes back to the very beginning of the West German republic in 1949: The CSU is a fiercely proud Bavarian party that was in office in Germany's largest state for the vast majority since then. As long as the CSU sticks to Bavaria, the CDU has vowed never to field candidates there, and the two center-right parties agree on a common manifesto for national elections. If the alliance wins, which they have more often than not, the CSU is rewarded with a few ministries in the federal Cabinet in Berlin.

Surprised to be friends

When the CDU convened for their conference in Hanover in September, chairman Friedrich Merz joked about how "surprised" he was that he was getting on so well with his opposite number in the CSU. The remark drew a laugh, both because the CSU's Markus Söder has caused much friction with the "big sister" CDU in recent years and because both men enjoy their reputations as highly ambitious leaders.

On stage in Augsburg, Merz promised the Bavarian delegates, "An annus horribilis like 2021 will not be repeated. Divided parties don't get elected."

CDU and CSU supporters won't have needed reminding of how horrible that post-Merkel hangover year became. The painful row between Söder and then-CDU leader Armin Laschet over who would lead the conservatives into the general election set the campaign off to an ugly start, which left both parties looking bitter, dissatisfied, and divided.

Laschet was the leader of the larger party, which usually puts forward the alliance's chancellor candidate. But Söder was seen by many — also in the CDU — as the more electable candidate. In the end, he did not bow out gracefully.

That public power struggle, and Laschet's gaffe-strewn campaign, virtually handed the chancellorship to Olaf Scholz, though his center-left Social Democrats had long been way behind in the polls.

In opposition, the pressure is off

But Söder has learned from his stubbornness, according to Ursula Münch, director of the Tutzing Academy for Political Education in Bavaria. "I think he understood that that wasn't the right strategy," she told DW.

Now, the CDU/CSU bloc constitutes the largest opposition in the federal parliament and is making its voice heard. Sometimes things are easier in opposition, according to political scientist Münch. "It's easier to criticize together when you have a common enemy in the federal coalition than it is when you have to shape a policy and govern together," she explained.

Not only that, Scholz makes for an easy target these days. The chancellor is struggling to maintain his air of competence in the face of multiple crises. An opinion poll released on Monday, October 31, 2022, found that 57% of Germans have a negative view of his chancellorship so far. He is also seen as struggling to unite his center-left coalition of SPD, Greens, and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP).

In his speech in Augsburg, Merz attempted to capitalize on that discontent, repeating his much-used refrain: "It's not the last 16 years [under the CDU government] that were the problem, it was the last 16 weeks [under Scholz]."

He also attacked and ridiculed Scholz's Social Democrats and the Greens as "Verbotsparteien" (parties that prohibit things), supposedly unlike the CDU and CSU. "We're not a dogmatic political family, we're not ideologues. We do what is suitable for the people and our country as a whole," he said.

Söder's regional problems

Merz and Söder share a confrontational rhetorical style and language that suits them for opposition: Merz's talking points on the SPD echo Söder's repeated mockery of the Greens.

Söder seems focused on regional issues these days. As head of government in Bavaria, he will run for re-election next year — a crucial test of his power: The CSU, which won over 50% of the regional vote for decades, had seen a steady decline, and dropped 10 points in the 2018 election, taking only 37.2% of the vote, which Söder will be desperate to improve on.

The latest opinion polls have seen the Bavarian conservatives hovering between 37% and 41%. Political pundits had started speculating about a CSU coalition with the Green Party as the only combination that would secure a majority.

So Söder's talking points and attack lines against the federal government have recently been regionally focused — especially on the organization of Bavaria's energy supply. "We don't know how long this will last, but at the moment he seems to be leaving the opposition at the federal level to Friedrich Merz," said Münch. "He hasn't been addressing global politics, he hasn't been interfering in foreign policy at all. I think at the moment he has enough to do with Bavaria at the moment."

CSU, the hard-line CDU?

This new conservative harmony is in some ways the exception rather than the rule. Söder's challenge to the CDU in 2021 had been a continuation of a CSU tradition, which often casts itself as slightly edgier. Historically, it has often been a home for a more right-wing fringe of conservatives, which is sometimes unhelpful for the bloc as a whole.

Merz's and Söder's predecessors as the heads of the CDU and CSU, Angela Merkel and Horst Seehofer, had a notoriously difficult relationship. The infamous low point came at the CSU party conference in 2015 when the Bavarian leader left Chancellor Merkel standing awkwardly beside him on stage for 13 minutes while he explained everything he thought was wrong with her asylum policy.

In the coming years, as the "refugee crisis" dominated headlines in Germany, Seehofer, who was federal interior minister at the time, repeatedly threatened to bring the government down, especially over his insistence on capping the number of asylum seekers, which Merkel refused to accept.

Those days are banished, at least for now. "The rows between the CDU and the CSU will come back, but at the moment there is no reason for either to be setting themselves apart," said Münch.

That could change after next year's election in Bavaria. Söder remains a formidably self-confident campaigner, and should he deliver a victory in Bavaria more emphatic than the current polls suggest, he may even reawaken his larger ambitions. That would be a nightmare for Merz.

Edited by: Rina Goldenberg

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