France riots: Could the country's far-right benefit?

The violence on the streets seems to be gradually dying down, but in many French cities, life is still not back to normal. Anger at the state and its institutions exploded around the country after police shot dead 17-year-old Nahel during a traffic stop in the Parisian suburb of Nanterre. The situation deteriorated further after a video appeared on social media which insinuated that the police officer was not acting in self-defense.

The violence has mainly been directed against symbols of the state: police stations, schools, and city halls in particular. The most serious incident to-date was an attack on the residence of the mayor of L'Hay-les-Roses in the wider Paris region: Unidentified perpetrators rammed a car into a low wall surrounding the house, torched their vehicle, and shot fireworks as the mayor's wife and their two small children tried to flee. The judiciary is investigating for attempted murder. 

On Monday, solidarity rallies were held in front of the town halls of numerous cities. Since the riots began, over 3,000 arrests have been made across the country.  And the far-right National Rally (RN) could be benefiting from the chaos.

Solidarity with the family of Nahel?

Many French politicians explicitly condemned the shooting of 17-year-old Nahel — above all President Emmanuel Macron, who described it as "inexplicable" and "unforgivable." He was joined by politicians from the center and the left. Francois Ruffin, a deputy from the far-left party La France Insoumise, called for the entire nation to show solidarity with a mother "whose 17-year-old son was shot at close range, although he posed no danger whatsoever."

However, not all political parties have shown unreserved solidarity with Nahel's family. Eric Ciotti, president of the conservative The Republicans (LR) party, tweeted his "support," but also expressed his confidence in the police, saying that people should await the findings of the investigation before condemning the officer. Two days after the incident, he called on the government to declare a state of emergency in response to the unrest. This would grant authorities far-reaching powers, such as the ability to restrict freedom of assembly, or search people's homes.

National Rally's 'suit-and-tie strategy'

With this, Ciotti went much further than Marine Le Pen, the RN candidate in the past two presidential elections and current head of the party's parliamentary group in the French National Assembly. Le Pen described Macron's comments as "excessive," and she, too, stressed that people should await the results of the investigation. However, she believed that a state of emergency should only be imposed if the situation continued to deteriorate.

Benjamin Morel, a lecturer in public law at Paris Pantheon-Assas University, calls this a "suit-and-tie strategy." The National Rally has been trying to come across as moderate for years now, he said. "They wear suits and ties everywhere — in the National Assembly, for example — and don't call attention to themselves the way they used to do, with very radical statements," he explained in an interview with DW. "In the current crisis, the RN is adopting almost the same line as Macron."

'Pursuing a dual strategy'

However, Gilles Ivaldi, a political scientist at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po in Paris (CEVIPOF), pointed out that some members of the RN are in fact driving a harder line. He cited the RN party leader Jordan Bardella as an example.

The 27-year-old Bardella, himself from an immigrant family, has spoken of the "growing savagery of society resulting from a completely insane immigration policy," and promised to expel all "foreign criminals" from France if the RN wins the presidential elections in 2027.

"The party is pursuing a dual strategy that plays both to its traditional, extreme voters, and to potential new voters who are worried about security and see the RN as a party that Le Pen has seemingly made acceptable, and that will restore order," Ivaldi told DW.

'The RN is clearly opposed to equality'

The National Rally still has a racist manifesto, says Sylvain Crepon, a political science lecturer at the University of Tours in central France. "The party wants to end all immigration from outside Europe, and is clearly opposed to the values of integration and equality," he told DW. It was a fact so well known, Crepon believed, that the party no longer needed to mention it aloud.

"Even if Marine Le Pen doesn't mention it explicitly, everyone knows that, according to her party, it's always immigrants who are to blame for crime in France. When other politicians like Ciotti say the same thing, it only helps the RN, because voters would rather vote for the original than a copy," Crepon says.

It's a strategy that seems to be paying off: In the decisive runoff after last year's presidential election, Le Pen received 41.5% of the vote — up from 34% in 2017.

All three researchers agree that the current crisis may give the far-right another boost. Popular response to two online fundraising campaigns appear to prove the point. So far, just over €367,000 ($399,534) have been raised for Nahel's bereaved family, while over €1.45 million have been pledged to help the family of the police officer who fired the shot.

Reforms to heal rifts in French society

The French government has been quick to point out that it has been responding to the the current crisis — as well as to the potential surge for France's far right — within the rule of law.

Responding to a question from DW at a press briefing on Monday, a government spokesman said: "We have increased the police presence, and are in contact with local authorities and associations, as well as with Nahel's family. While others are proposing radical solutions, we want to avoid a divide in society." He said the government had already done a lot for the suburbs, but was having to make up for decades of neglect.

Michel Kokoreff, a professor of sociology at Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis University, disagreed. "That is just plain wrong," he told DW. "For example, in 2018 the government went ahead and canceled a planned 48-billion-euro action plan for the suburbs."

According to Kokoreff, "The only way to counter the right wing is to heal the rifts in society, in order to prevent unrest in the suburbs in the future. This would require fundamental reforms, such as police reform, including placing police units in the suburbs that are in daily contact with residents."

However, even if President Macron's government did tackle such reforms, they would need time to take effect. And there are only four years left until the next presidential election.

This article was translated from German.