Fragile Relations – China's ties with Taiwan are improving but that doesn't make things easier

It was the impressive weaponry that Taiwan's leadership put on display duiring the national day parade in the streets of the country's capital Taipei that reminded onlookers that despite reduced tensions in recent years, relations between Taiwan and the People's Republic of China remain a tinderbox. "We cannot maintain peace through wishful thinking alone," Taiwan's president Ma Ying-jeou warned in his National Day Address. Only a strong defence force could safeguard Taiwan's security and sovereignty he declared in view of the estimated 1400 ballistic missiles mainland China still has trained on the island.

Observers point out that strong man rhetoric of this kind could, however, be directed more at a domestic audience than toward decision makers in Beijing as Ma faces re-election in January. And although recent opinion polls show him slightly ahead of his challenger, Mrs. Tsai Ing-wen from the pro-Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), he is eager to fend off Tsai's criticism that he has been selling out Taiwan's interests to mainland China in return for short-term economic benefits.

Significant improvements in relations

In fact, cross-Straits relations have improved significantly since Ma took office in 2008. Dr. Dafydd Fell, senior lecturer in Taiwan Studies at the renowned School of Oriental and African Studies in London, even describes relations between Taiwan and the mainland as being at their "most harmonious" in almost 20 years. Since the two sides resumed regular talks under Ma's presidency, they have signed 15 agreements which cover direct cross-Straits air services, food security as well as financial and judicial cooperation. The People's Republic is Taiwan's biggest trading partner. Exports to the mainland and Hong Kong accounted for over 40 percent of the total by August 2011 and economists estimate Taiwanese investments in the PRC add up to about 300 billion US-Dollars.

In June 2010 Taiwan and China signed an "Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement" (ECFA), which is considered a milestone in cross-Straits relations. The deal aims to reduce tariffs and commercial barriers between the two to further boost bilateral trade. Since then Taiwan has signed an investment agreement with Japan and is negotiating with Singapore. In the past, such agreements were difficult because of pressure from China.

Trying out a 'viable' alternative

However, improved economic and political relations come at a price. The Ma administration has downgraded Taiwan's international ambitions. As part of what it calls "viable diplomacy," Taiwan's government has given up its bid to become a full-blown member of the UN and has now settled for observer status in international organizations like the World Health Assembly, the decision-making body of the WHO. In return, the hickhack with the PRC over diplomatic allies has ceased. Since 2008 none of the 23 countries officially maintaining diplomatic relations with Taiwan, mostly in Central America and Africa, have switched sides to recognize the PRC. However, if Taiwan continues to downplay its international public diplomacy, this could, says SOAS-academic Fell, in the mid-term lead to an erosion of Taiwan's sovereignty.

That the deepening ties to the mainland and the increased economic and social leverage of the PRC could eventually pave the way to unification, is, however, taking things a bit too far, say leading officials in Taiwan. "Increasing ties can also lead to friendship and mutual understanding," says Chu Shi, Director General of the mainland affairs office in Taipei.

Dafydd Fell also agrees that unification isn't around the corner. Not least because it is so unpopular with the Taiwanese. In recent polls, only 1.4 percent were in favour of an immediate unification with China. The overwhelming majority, more than 76 percent, want to stick with the status quo at least for the time being, with just over 10 percent supporting unification at some later point. In the long run, however, this sentiment could shift, notes Fell, on the back of closer economic relations and increasing social ties between Taiwan and the mainland.

Reunification is the aim

Unification is still what the leadership on the other side of the Taiwan Strait is aiming for. At a ceremony in Beijing, also marking the 100th anniversary of the 1911 revolution, China's President Hu Jintao made the case for unification once agein. "Achieving reunification by peaceful means best serves the fundamental interests of all Chinese, including our Taiwan compatriots," Hu said.

The PRC is using its growing clout in Taiwan as best it can. "Mainland policy is focused on promoting a web of economic, social and cultural relationships that will serve as a foundation to achieve its ultimate goal of reunification," writes a Taiwan-expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. "We can see how they are trying to use economic incentives to improve their image on the island," Dafydd Fell in London agrees, "but so far this approach has not been very effective."

Despite the sabre-rattling at the national day celebrations in Taipei, the chances of a military face-off across the Taiwan Strait don't seem very high, although "this option must remain a remote possibility," writes Daffyd Fell. In its Anti-Secession-Law, China threatens the use of force if Taiwan declares its independence or if all possibilities of peaceful reunification are completely exhausted. As long as this isn't the case, Fell expects the US to militarily intervene on Taiwan's behalf should China launch its missiles.

This holds true although deepening ties between the US and China make it increasingly difficult for Washington to fulfill its security pledge to Taipei without upsetting Beiing too much. So one hundred years after the Chinese Revolution, a fragile balance maintains the peace across the Taiwan Strait and, according to Taiwan expert Fell, this is likely to be the case for the forseeable future. But with China becoming more powerful both in the region and globally, keeping this balance may become increasingly difficult and complicated.

Author: Ferdinand Huber
Editor: Grahame Lucas