Fossil fuel phaseout — is it actually possible?

What do kicking back and watching Netflix, hopping in the car to work, and sitting in a steel-framed skyscraper have in common? They are all powered in some way by fossil fuels. 

From the industrial processes that create steel and cement to the electricity powering homes; oil, coal and gas continue to meet more than 80% of the world's energy needs. 

Burning fossil fuels accounts for 75% of the greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the planet, increasing average global temperatures and contributing to extreme weather events worldwide.

Scientists say that to keep to the Paris Agreement ambition of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit), countries must slash emissions by 43% by 2030. That means rapidly reducing the use of fossil fuels and switching to renewables-based energy supplies. 

The world has the technology to phaseout fossil fuels 

"It's completely feasible to have a fossil fuel phaseout, both at the global level and the country level," said Natalie Jones, energy policy adviser at the International Institute for Sustainable Development think tank.

Jones told DW that the IPCC, the UN's climate body, and the intergovernmental International Energy Agency (IEA) have laid out "global-level road maps" to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. 

The technology is there, according to scientists and numerous analysts. 

"We can get that phaseout starting with a phasedown in this decade and we know its practical and its possible because we are seeing it out in the world today," said Rachel Cleetus, policy director on the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a US-based nonprofit. 

"We are seeing renewable energy ramp up at record rates. We are seeing electric vehicles, energy storage costs come down year on year by double digits."  

While fossil fuels still make up most of the global energy mix, renewable capacity is expanding faster than ever and prices are plummeting. Over the last decade solar energy has dropped almost 90% and onshore wind by 69%, meaning it now costs less than half that of the cheapest fossil-fuels.

Industries that are more difficult to decarbonise — such as steel, cement and long-haul aviation — need more innovation and research, Cleetus said, adding that they should not be used as an excuse for inaction. 

According to the IEA the path to net zero by 2050 is narrow but still achievable, so long as we take immediate action to deploy massive amounts of all the clean and efficient energy technologies available. The agency also maps a potential role for technologies such as carbon capture and storage — which has not yet been rolled out at scale — and green hydrogen further down the timeline.  

Money and political will are slowing progress

"We have essentially the technological readiness to achieve it — or we expect to have over the next 25 years — but the political commitment and investments are not there yet," said Aurelien Saussay, assistant professor of environmental economics in the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics.

A 2023 analysis of 63 of the world's biggest economies, collectively responsible for 90% of global emissions, found none to be doing enough to avert the worst impacts of climate change. 

This political inaction looms over COP28. A recent UN stocktake of national climate plans also found that countries are "significantly off track" in meeting their commitments to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

While an estimated $1.8 trillion was invested in clean energy in 2023, this needs to be ramped up to over $4.5 trillion to stay in line with net-zero pathways, according to the IEA.

Researchers and campaigners also say that besides increasing available funds, money has to be distributed more fairly. 

Kelly Trout, research co-director at the US-based advocacy organization Oil Change International said a systemic change of global financial architecture is needed to increase access to funds for clean energy in poorer countries.

"Countries in the global south need to be able to leapfrog fossil fuels and build models of development that are both sustainable for the climate and better for people and communities." 

Wealthy countries need to move first and fastest 

Key to achieving a fossil fuel phaseout is ensuring it is a just transition, according to Steve Pye associate professor in energy systems, at University College London. 

"What does an equitable phaseout look like? Well, it's about rich countries who are less dependent, [on fossil fuels] and have large economies to take a leadership role."

"But still, the political economy of this is very, very difficult," he continued, adding that it is hard to see the way forward for how quickly some heavily fossil fuel-dependent countries — such as Iraq, where oil funds over 80% of the government budget — would need to phaseout to meet the 1.5 degree target.

In wealthy countries, that need to move "first and fastest" towards the phaseout, the primary roadblock to rapid progress is "the political will to stand up to the fossil fuel industry," said Trout. 

She added that if leaders do commit to a phaseout in the final COP28 text, this would mean governments had to return home and immediately put bans on new fossil fuel licensing and permits for new fossil fuel infrastructure.

"From a technological point of view, there's a lot of hope out there," said Pye, highlighting how there are increasing signs that energy systems can be decarbonised and electrified in an economically efficient way.

"It's just about getting those investments in the right place and scaling them…So that definitely does give me some optimism that we have a way out. Whether we take it or not is another thing."

Edited by: Tamsin Walker